Systematic Political Science


An Explanation of How International Relations/Law Can Use Subgame Perfect Equilibrium and Inductive Event Horizons to Understand the Prime Apocalypse (Revelation), Violence and Music Trends

Dallas F. Bell, Jr.

1. International Relations/Law

International relations is a branch of political science that analyses the relations between nation-states, especially regarding foreign policies. Those policies are based on the dominant theological beliefs of the individuals that make up their respective societies. The collective theological beliefs epistemologically govern the domestic societal rules or laws to establish what is acceptable and what is not acceptable behavior for each nation-state.

International law refers to implicit and explicit agreements of rules and laws between nation-states. Jus gentium (Latin, law of nations) deals with the Natural Law of Freewill (NLF) or common law, e.g. acceptable behavior in war. Jus inter gentes (Latin, law between the peoples) includes treaties and other agreements between nation-states. Public international law concerns the behavior of nations and international organizations. Whereas, private international law governs the behavior of individuals as they interact with other nations.

Francisci de Victoria (c. 1492-1546) promoted the Christian philosophy and theology of Thomas Aquinas which saw the connections between theology and societal law--NLF--contributing to just war theories in international law. Francisci influenced the Christian, Hugo Grotius (1583-1645). Grotius' libri tres De Jure Belli ac Pacis (three books: On the Law of War and Peace) was published in 1625. The three chapters of Book I look at arguments for the concept of a just war. Book II identifies the causes of a just and unjust war in its twenty-five chapters. The laws regarding the conduct of war are addressed in the twenty-five chapters of Book III.

Lassa Francis Lawrence Oppenheim (1858-1919) sought to separate law from morals and politics. Oppenheim reflects his theological beliefs in his positivism model in the 1905-1906 book "International Law: A Treatise." His widely accepted amoral approach can be exposed as defective using the tool of a subgame perfect equilibrium.

2. Subgame Perfect Equilibrium

In game theory, the process of the last future action of a player (nation-state, organization or individual) in a game (international relations) being the start point while expected moves (behavior) in subgames are induced to the present time frame is called a subgame perfect equilibrium. (This statement is derived from an email exchange between Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and Dallas F. Bell Jr. during December, 2008.)

An example of this method can be demonstrated in a simplified business model for a merger of two international corporations. The event algorithm is arranged inductively to begin with the last action which is the successful merger of the two companies (event X). The event subsets of event X have a predictable behavioral path of subgames or subsets where subset event X1 equals both companies' shareholders approving the merger terms, subset event X 2 equals both companies negotiating the terms of the merger, and subset event X3 equals both companies having a need for a merger at the present time. Of course, this contingency plan can be mapped long before there arises a need to merge.

The United States military has used the model of backward planning for many decades. When an action, such as a raid on an enemy stronghold, is tasked to a unit for a specific time, the subset events or nodes (i.e. rehearsals, operations order, etc.) can be planned and incorporated into a timetable to the present time by the unit leader which increases the provability of a successful operation. The following is a simple example.

Event X: Conduct a raid on the enemy stronghold at location __ at X time.

X1: Depart to conduct the raid at -X time.

X2: Conduct an equipment check at -X time.

X3: Conduct a rehearsal at -X time.

X4: Give the operations order at -X time.

X5: Prepare the operations order at -X time.

X6: Inform the unit members of the future operation at the present -X time.

The amoral positivism model set forth by Oppenheim concerning international law can be discredited by the following subgame perfect equilibrium example. Event X is an atheistic nation and a Muslim nation that need a peace treaty within the next year. Subset X1 is a treaty agreed to by the respective decision making leaders of each nation. Subset X2 involves the negotiating process for the treaty. In subset X3, the present situation causes each side to seek a peace treaty. Each of these nations' theological beliefs allow for lying as acceptable behavior in order to gain a strategic advantage over an opponent. They have no common core to reach agreements on crime, justice, punishment or peace. Thus, any peace treaty would be an unreliable predictor of future behavior due to profound intractable disagreements. This is why Judeo-Christian beliefs do not allow for believers to have societal dealings with nonbelievers.

The subgame perfect equilibrium eliminates non-credible threats of a player in a sequential game. The inductive process exposes the behavior of a threat as not beneficial for that player and so the hope of that player trying to effect the other player's options is dashed. For example, if one nuclear weaponized country threatens another nuclear weaponized country with the use of its nuclear weapons, each side knows that both countries will be demolished. Both sides could discard the suicidal option of nuclear war. However, eschatology from Muslim theology would not eliminate that non-credible nuclear threat and even make them desirous of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) option of nuclear war.

3. Inductive Event Horizon

As we saw in the last section, not all beliefs are compatible. Given that both beliefs are not untrue, those differences can't be both true and untrue at the same time. Then, there must be truth and untruth. Truth would be more desirable for efficiency than untruth. Willingly choosing behavior based on untruth can be described as evil. Having the awareness and freewill to choose evil (e.g. reject love, reject justice, etc.) requires intellect and personality. The being that leads the movement for evil is often called Satan. Since evil is inconsistent with NLF it is self-destructive, self-defeating and finite. Therefore, the infinite Creator of NLF must justly have a point of confrontation to stop beings that choose evil.

Even atheist scientists acknowledge the entropy of mankind and have established a doomsday clock to predict an ultimate end to present circumstances. Beliefs for that event horizon (much like the event horizon said to define the last stage of being engulfed by a theoretical black hole) can be inductively followed by theologies. Biblical teachings say that people will perish without a vision and so presents revelation (Greek, apocalypse meaning an unveiling of something unknown).

The biblical view of mankind's future inductively follows events from the event horizon described as the doctrine of Jesus' Second Coming from His first coming around two thousand years ago. Over three hundred prophesies have confirmed Jesus as being the foretold Messiah. It has been estimated that the probability for Jesus to have fulfilled all the prophesies would be odds of 10 to the 38th (meaning one in one hundred billion, billion, billion, billion). The following are a few examples of Old Testament prophesies and the New Testament fulfillment of those prophesies by Jesus from His birth to His ascension into heaven.

--Born of a virgin (Isaiah 7:14; Matthew 1:18, 21-23; Luke 1:26-31)

--Seed of a woman (Genesis 3:15; Matthew 1:18; Galatians 4:4)

--A descendant of Abraham (Genesis 12:1-3; 22:18; Matthew 1:1-16; Galatians 3:16)

--Of the tribe of Judah (Genesis 49:10; Matthew 1:1-3; Luke 3:23, 33; Hebrews 7:14)

--A descendant of David (Isaiah 11:10; Matthew 1:6-17 is considered by some scholars to be the record of the patriarchal legal descent of Jesus by the marriage of Mary to Joseph; Luke 3:23-31 is considered by some scholars to be the record of Jesus' biological descent from Mary; Romans 15:12)

--Heir to the throne of David (Isaiah 9:6-7; Matthew 1:1; Luke 1:32-33)

--Born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2, Matthew 2:1; Luke 2:4-7)

--Taken to Egypt (Hosea 11:1; Matthew 2:14-15)

--Herod's killing of the infants (Jeremiah 31:15; Matthew 2:16-18)

--Declared to be the Son of God (Psalm 2:7; Matthew 3:17)

--Heralded by the messenger of the Lord (John the Baptist) (Isaiah 40:3-5; Malachi 3:1; Matthew 3:1-3, 11:7-11; Luke 3:3-6)

--Would minister in Galilee (Isaiah 9:1-2; Matthew 4:12-16)

--Would enter Jerusalem as a king on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9; Matthew 21:4-9; Mark 11:7-11)

--Priest after the order of Melchizedek (Psalm 110:4; Hebrews 5:5-6, 6:20, 7:15-17)

--Rejection (Isaiah 53:3; Matthew 21:42; Mark 8:31, 12:10; Luke 9:22, 17:25, 23:18; John 1:10-11; 7:5,48)

--Betrayal by a friend (Psalm 41:9; Luke 22:3-4, 47-48; John 13:18-21)

--Sold for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12; Matthew 26:14-15; Luke 22:5)

--Accused by false witnesses (Psalm 35:11; Matthew 26:60; Mark 14:57-58)

--Silence before His accusers (Isaiah 53:7; Matthew 27:12-14; Mark 15:4-5)

--Being mocked (Psalm 22: 7-8; Matthew 27:31, 43; Luke 23:35)

--Spat upon and beaten (Isaiah 50:6, 52:14, 53:5; Matthew 26:67, 27:26, 30)

--Hated without a cause (Psalm 35:19; Matthew 27:23, John 15:24-25)

--Vicarious sacrifice (Isaiah 53:5; John 1:29; Romans 5:6-8)

--Piercing His hands and feet (Psalm 22:16; Zechariah 12:10; Matthew 27:31; John 20:25-27)

--Being crucified with thieves (Isaiah 53:12; Matthew 27:35-38; Mark 15:27-28 )

--Piercing His side (Zechariah 12:10; John 19:34)

--Given gall and vinegar to drink (Psalm 69:21, Matthew 27:34, Luke 23:36)

--No broken bones (Numbers 9:12; Psalm 34:20; John 19:32-36)

--Casting lots for His garments (Psalm 22:17-18; Matthew 27:35-36; John 19:23-24)

--Forsaken by God (Psalm 22:1; Matthew 27:46)

--Buried in a rich man's tomb (Isaiah 53:9; Matthew 27:57-60)

--Would rise from the dead (Psalm 16:10-11, 49:15; Mark 16:6-7; Acts 2:31)

--Ascend into Heaven and sit down at the right hand of God (Psalm 68:18, 110:1; Mark 12:36, 16:19; Luke 20:42-43, 24:51; Acts 1:9, 2:34-35; I Corinthians 15:4; Ephesians 4:8; Hebrews 1:13)

Those events can be categorized as a pretribulation subset for the event of the second coming. They may be added to the following events after Jesus' death on the cross in 30 A.D. which began the process of His second coming.

X19: Hebrews return to their land in Israel (Ezekiel 36-37) in 1948.

X18: Earthquakes, famines, floods, wars and rumors of war increase (Matthew 24:3-8; Mark 13:4-8; Luke 21:10-11) by the 1970's. For example, the U. S. national earthquake statistics (NEIC) show that mid to lower level earthquakes have increased over the past thirty years. Lisa Wald, a geophysicist with the U. S. Geological Survey's earthquake hazards program, says that there is an increase of the quality and number of earthquake recording stations, but there are still areas that do not have seismometers to record earthquakes of 1 to 3 magnitudes. Data from those regions is reported as earthquakes are felt by people that inhabit the area. (Lisa Wald's comments are derived from an email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in December, 2008.)

X17: The old Roman Empire is reconstituted (Revelation 13:1-3, 17) as the European Union (EU) in 1993.

X16: The United States must cease to be a world power to allow the EU to become the world leader rivaled by Asia, Russia and the Middle East allies (Daniel 7:7, 24-27). The 2008 U.S. presidential election resulted in the selection a person with third world values from his third world beliefs supported by a young constituent called millennialists. Millennialists are survivors of the legal abortion option who are below thirty years of age. This demographic has been identified by researchers as having the lowest academic skills in U. S. history and have been labeled the stupidest generation. These Darwinian evolutionists violate NLF such as they are without natural affection, love themselves, are covetous, are blasphemers, are disobedient to parents, are false accusers, are trucebreakers, etc. This has followed an economic collapse from corrupt corporations and government spending. Peter G. Peterson's foundation calculated the U. S. government statistics that show U. S. government debt now exceeds the total net worth of all its citizens. The Christian work ethic is only maintained by the Evangelical minority with the majority of the population demanding other people meet their needs and desires. Ayn Rand's 1957 book, "Atlas Shrugged", describes this state where the few producers that are being unjustly overloaded by taxation and unjustly penalized for achievement as they support the non achieving and non producing majority. Igor Panarin, an analyst at Russia's Diplomatic Academy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, now predicts a U. S. collapse.

X15: The Gospel of Jesus must be proclaimed to the whole world (Matthew 24:14). The use of satellite television/radio and the internet has made this a reality by 2008.

The seven year tribulation subsets (3 1/2 years of relative peace and 3 1/2 years of increased violence) for a pre-tribulation interpretation of biblical prophesy which conclude with the event of Jesus' coming are as follows and not necessarily in chronological order.

X14: The forgiven believers are raptured as the time of judgment or tribulation begins (Jeremiah 30:1-10; Matthew 24:21-22) and are not subject to another judgment (Revelation 3:10). God's thoughts for His followers are for peace, and not evil, to give an expected end (Jeremiah 29:11). Raptured saints join Jesus in the air as the process of His second coming begins (I Thessalonians 4:16-17).

X13: Israel is attacked by Russia supported by its Middle East Allies including Iran Ezekiel 38:1-23, 39:9-15).

X12: The new world leader emerges from the EU and establishes a seven year peace treaty with Israel (Daniel 9:26-27, 11:36; Revelation 13:1-2).

X11: God's two witnesses begin to preach the Gospel in Jerusalem and oppose the new world leader (Revelation 11:3).

X10: Men's hearts begin to fail them due to fear of what is to come (Luke 21:26).

X9: Many people begin to become believers (Revelation 7:14-17, 20:4).

X8: The new world leader establishes a cashless economy (Revelation 13:18).

X7: The new world leader forces all people to take his mark (a sign of servitude) in the forehead or the right hand (Revelation 13:16-17). Today many countries are already forcing its citizens to take their ID. Implant chips now have the ability to transmit and receive information with their controllers.

X6: The new world leader begins to murder all that oppose him (Revelation 13:14).

X5: The new world leader recovers from a fatal head wound (Revelation 13:3).

X4: The new world leader can make fire come down from heaven (Revelation 13:13).

X3: The new world leader kills God's two witnesses for all the world to see and after three days the whole world sees them rise and ascend into heaven at the end of the first 3 1/2 years (Revelation 6:9-11, 11:3-12).

X2: The new world leader breaks the treaty with Israel and demands to be worshipped in the reconstructed Jewish temple in Jerusalem (Daniel 9:27, 12:11; Matthew 24:15).

X1: At the end of the seven years, the two hundred million man Asian army crosses the Euphrates River for the last battle at Armageddon before Jesus sets up His throne on earth to fulfill the end of His second coming process (Daniel 11:40-45; Revelation 9:14-21, 16:12-21). Armageddon is a geographic location at Mount Megiddo.

EVENT X: Jesus' second coming completed (Deuteronomy 30:1-3; Psalms 2:6-9, 14:7, 20:2, 50:2, 53:6, 72, 89:36, 96, 110:2-6, 128:5, 134:3, 135:21; Isaiah 2:3-4, 9:6-7, 11:13, 63:1-6; Daniel 7:13-14; Joel 3:1-2, 16; Amos 1:2; Zechariah 2:10-11, 8:3-8, 14:1-4; Matthew 19:28, 23:39, 24:31, 25:46; Mark 13:24-37; Luke 12:35-48, 17:22-37; Acts 1:10-11, 15:16-18; Romans 11:25-27; I Corinthians 6:2-3, 11:26; II Thessalonians 1:7-10; II Peter 3:3-4; Jude 14-15; Revelation 1:7-8, 2:25-28, 16:15, 19:11-21, 22:20).

The subsets can be broken down into nodes for those people that choose good against the majority of people that choose evil. The biblical view is that only God knows the exact time of the second coming (Matthew 24:36) but it will be like the wicked days of Noah (Genesis 6:5; Matthew 24:37-47).

The presented prophesies, event X = (X1...X14) + (X15...X19), are believed to be as much of a certainty for future events as the New Testament account of Jesus foretelling of Peter's denial of Jesus before the cock crowed (Mark 14:29-72).

Event X: Peter's denial of Jesus before the cock crowed.

X1: Peter denied Jesus.

X2: Peter fled when Jesus was taken by force.

X3: Jesus was betrayed by Judas.

X4: Jesus tells Peter of the future event and Peter denies its future reality.

Just as that example was a certainty so is the probability of Jesus' second coming believed to be a certainty by believers.

4. Prime Apocalypse (Revelation), Violence and Music Trends

In Francis Bacon's (1561-1626), a proponent of inductive reasoning, Meditationes Sacrae, Bacon said "nam et ipsa scientia potestas est" (from knowledge is power). King Solomon said "a man of knowledge increases in strength" (Proverbs 24:5). There is and will continue to be counter theories to the reality of biblical prophesies being fulfilled. These red herrings range from alien invasions and world destruction to various manifestations of a utopia.

People that treat the knowledge of prophesy as true will have a clear advantage over those people that are without a true vision of coming events in the end times. The biblical book of Revelation (written by John c. 95 A.D.) says that people that read and hear prophesy are blessed (Revelation 1:3) and anyone that takes away from or adds to God's prophesy is cursed (Revelation 22:18-19).

Prime is often a reference to a number that has no factor except itself and one (e.g. 3) or having no common factor except one (e.g. 3 and 7). Prime apocalypse or revelation events are events that have nothing causal in common except prophesy (e.g. increase in earthquakes and the establishment of the Israeli state).

Violence is not a prime because, like other subsets, it is associated with the need for Christ's return. The biblical book of Genesis says during the days of Noah the earth was filled with violence...God will destroy them along with the earth (Genesis 6:13). Violence is defined as the freewill choice to violate others and would not include phenomena such as tornadoes, etc.

Some scholars with Darwinian evolutionist's beliefs have erroneously suggested that the rate of violence is decreasing. They cite such statistics as less human sacrifice but fail to include abortion. They cite less slavery but fail to include an oppressive government tax rate of over 50%. They cite less rapes but do not consider the increase in child rape or the increase of zanah (Hebrew, whorish) females that are not as susceptible to rape due to their willingness to be sexually used. If the violence of wars, abortion, and other crimes were categorized as murder, there has been approximately 500 million deaths in the last century. That number is more than the estimated world population around 200 years ago and that number is about the same as today's combined population of the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. H. G. Wells noted in his 1939 book, "The New World Order", that many resisters to a world of slavery ran by self appointed elites will need to be killed.

Steven Pinker, a cognitive psychologist at Harvard University, says that there is no universal belief that there is no case where it is unacceptable to kill unarmed women and children. Everyone accepts violence against the innocent if they feel it justifies a greater end (self-defense, deterrence, collateral damage). He cites the recent well known examples of the events at Dresden, Hiroshima, Iraq, and Yugoslavia, etc. Israel accepts collateral damage in the bombing of Lebanon in 2006 against Palestinian terrorists. The Palestinians are inflicting damage as a means to a better world. Pinker notes, as a psychologist, the psychology of both Israelis and Palestinians are not quantitatively different. That is not to say that their actions have moral symmetry. (The preceding statements by Steven Pinker were excerpted from an email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in December, 2008.)

The IDR's, Israeli Defense Force having an average Hebrew I.Q. of 120, ethics regards the value of human life as a supreme value based on a biblical history. The Palestinians, having an average Arab I.Q. of 80, do not value human life due to their values derived from the Qur'an. That contrast of beliefs points to the reality of a NLF that it is good for innocent human life to be valued, since the alternative is self-destructive and evil. Those stark differences were exposed by the U. S. State Department's recent "Roadmap to Peace" between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The goal of peace was to be inductively followed by Israel's acceptance of the pre-1967 war land boundaries and the Palestinians agreeing to stop paramilitary attacks and terrorism. It is no surprise that the Israelis have complied with the agreement but the Palestinians have not complied.

The unbiblical U. S. brokered Roadmap to Peace agreement is reportedly based on U. S. President George W. Bush and his advisors heretical Christian replacement theology. Replacement theology or supercessionism is the incorrect interpretation of the New Testament regarding God's chosen people, and the Christian church. They generally believe that the new Divine covenant means that today Christians have superseded or replaced Hebrews as God's chosen people and that the Christian church replaces the geographic nation of Israel. A basic understanding of the geographic specifics of Jesus' second coming disproves this anti-Israel notion.

In a 1969 concert in the U. S., the group called the Rolling Stones began to sing the satanic lyrics of their song "Sympathy for the Devil." Their Hell's Angels bodyguards and the audience became frenzied. The mayhem that ensued left many injured and dead. The group had evoked evil behavior from the spirit of their music. Like all art, their song reflected the soul and theology of its creator. Johann Sebastian Bach's (1685-1750) Passio Secundum Johannem (St. John Passion) reflected the theology found in the text of the biblical book of John chapters 18 and 19. Bach's work had a complex harmony, praised God, and invited the spirit of peace.

Music theorists study how and why music is perceived. Edward Klorman, violist and member of the music theory department at The Juilliard School, says that scholars are increasingly looking at the social and cultural contexts in which musical works were created to provide a more complete understanding of the piece. Klorman recommends the book entitled Musica Poetica by Dietrich Bartel, a professor in the Department of Music at the Canadian Mennonite Bible College, which discusses Bach's music vis-à-vis the Lutheran religion and tradition of classical rhetoric. (This statement by Edward Klorman was taken from an email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. during December, 2008.) Additionally, Michael Marissen, a professor of music at Swarthmore College has written the book "Bach's St. John Passion." (That book recommendation was made by Leon Botstein, a renowned conductor and long-time president of Bard College, in and email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in December, 2008.)

The Bible makes a clear distinction between tones. To howl means a wailing tone in Hebrew and to howl means to shriek in Greek. For example, the biblical passage says "to howl, for the day of the Lord is at hand, it shall come as a destruction from the almighty" (Isaiah 13:6; Jeremiah 4:8; Ezekiel 21:12; Joel 1:5). Howl means defeat, whereas to shout means to triumph (Ezra 3:11-13; Job 38:7; Zechariah 9:9).

5. Conclusion

International relation's and international law analysts can use both subgame perfect equilibrium tools and the inductive event horizon from certain biblical prophesy to understand prime and non-prime revelation (apocalypse) such as violence and music trends.

(Appreciation for addressing queries in an exchange of emails in December, 2008, is extended to Anthony Arend, professor of Law, Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and to Claire Kelly at the Brooklyn Law School.)

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