An Explanation
of How International Relations/Law Can Use
Subgame Perfect
Equilibrium and Inductive Event Horizons to Understand
the Prime
Apocalypse (Revelation), Violence and Music Trends
by
Dallas F.
Bell, Jr.
1. International
Relations/Law
International relations is
a branch of political science that analyses the relations between nation-states,
especially regarding foreign policies. Those policies are based
on the dominant theological beliefs of the individuals that make up
their respective societies. The collective theological beliefs
epistemologically govern the domestic societal rules or laws to establish
what is acceptable and what is not acceptable behavior for each nation-state.
International law refers to
implicit and explicit agreements of rules and laws between nation-states.
Jus gentium (Latin, law of nations) deals with the Natural Law of
Freewill (NLF) or common law, e.g. acceptable behavior in war.
Jus inter gentes (Latin, law between the peoples) includes treaties
and other agreements between nation-states. Public international
law concerns the behavior of nations and international organizations.
Whereas, private international law governs the behavior of individuals
as they interact with other nations.
Francisci de Victoria (c. 1492-1546)
promoted the Christian philosophy and theology of Thomas Aquinas which
saw the connections between theology and societal law--NLF--contributing
to just war theories in international law. Francisci influenced
the Christian, Hugo Grotius (1583-1645). Grotius' libri tres De
Jure Belli ac Pacis (three books: On
the Law of War and Peace)
was published in 1625. The three chapters of Book I look at arguments
for the concept of a just war. Book II identifies the causes of
a just and unjust war in its twenty-five chapters. The laws regarding
the conduct of war are addressed in the twenty-five chapters of Book
III.
Lassa Francis Lawrence Oppenheim
(1858-1919) sought to separate law from morals and politics. Oppenheim
reflects his theological beliefs in his positivism model in the 1905-1906
book "International Law: A Treatise." His widely accepted
amoral approach can be exposed as defective using the tool of a subgame
perfect equilibrium.
2. Subgame Perfect Equilibrium
In game theory, the process
of the last future action of a player (nation-state, organization or
individual) in a game (international relations) being the start point
while expected moves (behavior) in subgames are induced to the present
time frame is called a subgame perfect equilibrium. (This statement
is derived from an email exchange between Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, senior
fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and Dallas
F. Bell Jr. during December, 2008.)
An example of this method can
be demonstrated in a simplified business model for a merger of two international
corporations. The event algorithm is arranged inductively to begin
with the last action which is the successful merger of the two companies
(event X). The event subsets of event X have a predictable
behavioral path of subgames or subsets where subset event X1
equals both companies' shareholders approving the merger terms, subset
event X 2 equals both companies negotiating the terms of the
merger, and subset event X3 equals both companies having a need
for a merger at the present time. Of course, this contingency
plan can be mapped long before there arises a need to merge.
The United States military
has used the model of backward planning for many decades. When
an action, such as a raid on an enemy stronghold, is tasked to a unit
for a specific time, the subset events or nodes (i.e. rehearsals, operations
order, etc.) can be planned and incorporated into a timetable to the
present time by the unit leader which increases the provability of a
successful operation. The following is a simple example.
Event X: Conduct
a raid on the enemy stronghold at location __ at X time.
X1: Depart to
conduct the raid at -X time.
X2: Conduct an
equipment check at -X time.
X3: Conduct a
rehearsal at -X time.
X4: Give the operations
order at -X time.
X5: Prepare the
operations order at -X time.
X6: Inform the unit
members of the future operation at the present -X time.
The amoral positivism model
set forth by Oppenheim concerning international law can be discredited
by the following subgame perfect equilibrium example. Event
X is an atheistic nation and a Muslim nation that need a peace treaty
within the next year. Subset X1 is a treaty agreed to by
the respective decision making leaders of each nation. Subset
X2 involves the negotiating process for the treaty. In subset
X3, the present situation causes each side to seek a peace treaty.
Each of these nations' theological beliefs allow for lying as acceptable
behavior in order to gain a strategic advantage over an opponent.
They have no common core to reach agreements on crime, justice, punishment
or peace. Thus, any peace treaty would be an unreliable predictor
of future behavior due to profound intractable
disagreements.
This is why Judeo-Christian beliefs do not allow for believers to have societal
dealings with nonbelievers.
The subgame perfect equilibrium
eliminates non-credible threats of a player in a sequential game.
The inductive process exposes the behavior of a threat as not beneficial
for that player and so the hope of that player trying to effect the
other player's options is dashed. For example, if one nuclear
weaponized country threatens another nuclear weaponized country with
the use of its nuclear weapons, each side knows that both countries
will be demolished. Both sides could discard the suicidal option
of nuclear war. However, eschatology from Muslim theology would
not eliminate that non-credible nuclear threat and even make them desirous
of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) option of nuclear war.
3. Inductive Event
Horizon
As we saw in the last section,
not all beliefs are compatible. Given that both beliefs are not
untrue, those differences can't be both true and untrue at the same
time. Then, there must be truth and untruth. Truth would
be more desirable for efficiency than untruth. Willingly choosing
behavior based on untruth can be described as evil. Having the
awareness and freewill to choose evil (e.g. reject love, reject justice,
etc.) requires intellect and personality. The being that leads
the movement for evil is often called Satan. Since evil is inconsistent
with NLF it is self-destructive, self-defeating and finite. Therefore,
the infinite Creator of NLF must justly have a point of confrontation
to stop beings that choose evil.
Even atheist scientists acknowledge
the entropy of mankind and have established a doomsday clock to predict an ultimate end to present
circumstances. Beliefs for that event horizon (much like the event
horizon said to define the last stage of being engulfed by a theoretical
black hole) can be inductively followed by theologies. Biblical
teachings say that people will perish without a vision and so presents
revelation (Greek, apocalypse meaning an unveiling of something
unknown).
The biblical view of mankind's
future inductively follows events from the event horizon described as
the doctrine of Jesus' Second Coming from His first coming around
two thousand years ago. Over three hundred prophesies have confirmed
Jesus as being the foretold Messiah. It has been estimated that
the probability for Jesus to have fulfilled all the prophesies would
be odds of 10 to the 38th (meaning one in one hundred billion,
billion, billion, billion). The following are a few examples of Old Testament prophesies and the New Testament fulfillment of those prophesies by
Jesus from His birth to His ascension into heaven.
--Born of a virgin (Isaiah
7:14; Matthew 1:18, 21-23; Luke 1:26-31)
--Seed of a woman (Genesis
3:15; Matthew 1:18; Galatians 4:4)
--A
descendant of Abraham (Genesis 12:1-3; 22:18; Matthew 1:1-16; Galatians
3:16)
--Of the tribe
of Judah (Genesis 49:10; Matthew 1:1-3; Luke 3:23, 33; Hebrews 7:14)
--A descendant
of David (Isaiah 11:10; Matthew 1:6-17 is considered by some scholars
to be the record of the patriarchal legal descent of Jesus by the marriage
of Mary to Joseph; Luke 3:23-31 is considered by some scholars to be
the record of Jesus' biological descent from Mary; Romans 15:12)
--Heir to the
throne of David (Isaiah 9:6-7; Matthew 1:1; Luke 1:32-33)
--Born in Bethlehem
(Micah 5:2, Matthew 2:1; Luke 2:4-7)
--Taken to
Egypt (Hosea 11:1; Matthew 2:14-15)
--Herod's
killing of the infants (Jeremiah 31:15; Matthew 2:16-18)
--Declared
to be the Son of God (Psalm 2:7; Matthew 3:17)
--Heralded
by the messenger of the Lord (John the Baptist) (Isaiah 40:3-5; Malachi
3:1; Matthew 3:1-3, 11:7-11; Luke 3:3-6)
--Would minister
in Galilee (Isaiah 9:1-2; Matthew 4:12-16)
--Would enter
Jerusalem as a king on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9; Matthew 21:4-9; Mark
11:7-11)
--Priest after
the order of Melchizedek (Psalm 110:4; Hebrews 5:5-6, 6:20, 7:15-17)
--Rejection
(Isaiah 53:3; Matthew 21:42; Mark 8:31, 12:10; Luke 9:22, 17:25, 23:18;
John 1:10-11; 7:5,48)
--Betrayal
by a friend (Psalm 41:9; Luke 22:3-4, 47-48; John 13:18-21)
--Sold for
30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12; Matthew 26:14-15; Luke 22:5)
--Accused by
false witnesses (Psalm 35:11; Matthew 26:60; Mark 14:57-58)
--Silence before
His accusers (Isaiah 53:7; Matthew 27:12-14; Mark 15:4-5)
--Being mocked
(Psalm 22: 7-8; Matthew 27:31, 43; Luke 23:35)
--Spat upon
and beaten (Isaiah 50:6, 52:14, 53:5; Matthew 26:67, 27:26, 30)
--Hated without
a cause (Psalm 35:19; Matthew 27:23, John 15:24-25)
--Vicarious
sacrifice (Isaiah 53:5; John 1:29; Romans 5:6-8)
--Piercing
His hands and feet (Psalm 22:16; Zechariah 12:10; Matthew 27:31; John
20:25-27)
--Being crucified
with thieves (Isaiah 53:12; Matthew 27:35-38; Mark 15:27-28 )
--Piercing
His side (Zechariah 12:10; John 19:34)
--Given gall
and vinegar to drink (Psalm 69:21, Matthew 27:34, Luke 23:36)
--No broken
bones (Numbers 9:12; Psalm 34:20; John 19:32-36)
--Casting lots
for His garments (Psalm 22:17-18; Matthew 27:35-36; John 19:23-24)
--Forsaken
by God (Psalm 22:1; Matthew 27:46)
--Buried in
a rich man's tomb (Isaiah 53:9; Matthew 27:57-60)
--Would rise
from the dead (Psalm 16:10-11, 49:15; Mark 16:6-7; Acts 2:31)
--Ascend into Heaven and sit
down at the right hand of God (Psalm 68:18, 110:1; Mark 12:36, 16:19;
Luke 20:42-43, 24:51; Acts 1:9, 2:34-35; I Corinthians 15:4; Ephesians
4:8; Hebrews 1:13)
Those events can be categorized
as a pretribulation subset for the event of the second coming.
They may be added to the following events after Jesus' death on the
cross in 30 A.D. which began the process of His second coming.
X19: Hebrews return
to their land in Israel (Ezekiel 36-37) in 1948.
X18: Earthquakes,
famines, floods, wars and rumors of war increase (Matthew 24:3-8; Mark
13:4-8; Luke 21:10-11) by the 1970's. For example, the U. S.
national earthquake statistics (NEIC) show that mid to lower level earthquakes
have increased over the past thirty years. Lisa Wald, a geophysicist
with the U. S. Geological Survey's earthquake hazards program, says
that there is an increase of the quality and number of earthquake recording
stations, but there are still areas that do not have seismometers to
record earthquakes of 1 to 3 magnitudes. Data from those regions
is reported as earthquakes are felt by people that inhabit the area.
(Lisa Wald's comments are derived from an email exchange with Dallas
F. Bell Jr. in December, 2008.)
X17: The old Roman
Empire is reconstituted (Revelation 13:1-3, 17) as the European Union
(EU) in 1993.
X16: The United
States must cease to be a world power to allow the EU to become the
world leader rivaled by Asia, Russia and the Middle East allies (Daniel
7:7, 24-27). The 2008 U.S. presidential election resulted in the
selection a person with third world values from his third world beliefs
supported by a young constituent called millennialists. Millennialists
are survivors of the legal abortion option who are below thirty years
of age. This demographic has been identified by researchers as
having the lowest academic skills in U. S. history and have been labeled
the stupidest generation. These Darwinian evolutionists violate
NLF such as they are without natural affection, love themselves, are
covetous, are blasphemers, are disobedient to parents, are false accusers,
are trucebreakers, etc. This has followed an economic collapse
from corrupt corporations and government spending. Peter G. Peterson's
foundation calculated
the U. S. government statistics that show U. S. government debt now
exceeds the total net worth of all its citizens. The Christian
work ethic is only maintained by the Evangelical minority with the majority
of the population demanding other people meet their needs and desires.
Ayn Rand's 1957 book, "Atlas Shrugged", describes this state where
the few producers that are being unjustly overloaded by taxation and unjustly penalized for achievement
as they support the non achieving and non producing majority.
Igor Panarin, an analyst at Russia's Diplomatic Academy Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, now predicts a U. S. collapse.
X15: The Gospel
of Jesus must be proclaimed to the whole world (Matthew 24:14).
The use of satellite television/radio and the internet has made this
a reality by 2008.
The seven year tribulation
subsets (3 1/2 years of relative peace and 3 1/2 years of increased violence)
for a pre-tribulation interpretation of biblical prophesy which conclude
with the event of Jesus' coming are as follows and not necessarily
in chronological order.
X14: The forgiven
believers are raptured as the time of judgment or tribulation begins
(Jeremiah 30:1-10; Matthew 24:21-22) and are not subject to another
judgment (Revelation 3:10). God's thoughts for His followers
are for peace, and not evil, to give an expected end (Jeremiah 29:11).
Raptured saints join Jesus in the air as the process of His second coming
begins (I Thessalonians 4:16-17).
X13: Israel is
attacked by Russia supported by its Middle East Allies including Iran
Ezekiel 38:1-23, 39:9-15).
X12: The new world
leader emerges from the EU and establishes a seven year peace treaty
with Israel (Daniel 9:26-27, 11:36; Revelation 13:1-2).
X11: God's two
witnesses begin to preach the Gospel in Jerusalem and oppose the new
world leader (Revelation 11:3).
X10: Men's hearts
begin to fail them due to fear of what is to come (Luke 21:26).
X9: Many people
begin to become believers (Revelation 7:14-17, 20:4).
X8: The new world
leader establishes a cashless economy (Revelation 13:18).
X7: The new world
leader forces all people to take his mark (a sign of servitude) in the forehead
or the right hand (Revelation 13:16-17). Today many countries
are already forcing its citizens to take their ID. Implant chips
now have the ability to transmit and receive information with their
controllers.
X6: The new world
leader begins to murder all that oppose him (Revelation 13:14).
X5: The new world
leader recovers from a fatal head wound (Revelation 13:3).
X4: The new world
leader can make fire come down from heaven (Revelation 13:13).
X3: The new world
leader kills God's two witnesses for all the world to see and after
three days the whole world sees them rise and ascend into heaven at
the end of the first 3 1/2 years (Revelation 6:9-11, 11:3-12).
X2: The new world
leader breaks the treaty with Israel and demands to be worshipped in
the reconstructed Jewish temple in Jerusalem (Daniel 9:27, 12:11; Matthew
24:15).
X1: At the end
of the seven years, the two hundred million man Asian army crosses the
Euphrates River for the last battle at Armageddon before Jesus sets up His throne on
earth to fulfill the end of His second coming process (Daniel 11:40-45;
Revelation 9:14-21, 16:12-21). Armageddon is a geographic location
at Mount Megiddo.
EVENT
X: Jesus' second coming completed (Deuteronomy
30:1-3; Psalms 2:6-9, 14:7, 20:2, 50:2, 53:6, 72, 89:36, 96, 110:2-6,
128:5, 134:3, 135:21; Isaiah 2:3-4, 9:6-7, 11:13, 63:1-6; Daniel 7:13-14;
Joel 3:1-2, 16; Amos 1:2; Zechariah 2:10-11, 8:3-8, 14:1-4; Matthew
19:28, 23:39, 24:31, 25:46; Mark 13:24-37; Luke 12:35-48, 17:22-37;
Acts 1:10-11, 15:16-18; Romans 11:25-27; I Corinthians 6:2-3, 11:26;
II Thessalonians 1:7-10; II Peter 3:3-4; Jude 14-15; Revelation 1:7-8,
2:25-28, 16:15, 19:11-21, 22:20).
The subsets can be broken down
into nodes for those people that choose good against the majority of
people that choose evil. The biblical view is that only God knows
the exact time of the second coming (Matthew 24:36) but it will be like
the wicked days of Noah (Genesis 6:5; Matthew 24:37-47).
The presented prophesies, event
X = (X1...X14) + (X15...X19), are believed
to be as much of a certainty for future events as the New Testament
account of Jesus foretelling of Peter's denial of Jesus before the
cock crowed (Mark 14:29-72).
Event X: Peter's
denial of Jesus before the cock crowed.
X1: Peter denied
Jesus.
X2: Peter fled
when Jesus was taken by force.
X3: Jesus was
betrayed by Judas.
X4: Jesus tells
Peter of the future event and Peter denies its future reality.
Just as that example was a
certainty so is the probability of Jesus' second coming believed to
be a certainty by believers.
4. Prime Apocalypse
(Revelation), Violence and Music Trends
In Francis Bacon's (1561-1626),
a proponent of inductive reasoning, Meditationes Sacrae,
Bacon said "nam et ipsa scientia potestas est" (from knowledge
is power). King Solomon said "a man of knowledge increases in strength" (Proverbs
24:5). There is and will continue to be counter theories to the
reality of biblical prophesies being fulfilled. These red herrings
range from alien invasions and world destruction to various manifestations
of a utopia.
People that treat the knowledge
of prophesy as true will have a clear advantage over those people that
are without a true vision of coming events in the end times. The
biblical book of Revelation (written by John c. 95 A.D.) says that people
that read and hear prophesy are blessed (Revelation 1:3) and anyone
that takes away from or adds to God's prophesy is cursed (Revelation
22:18-19).
Prime is often a reference
to a number that has no factor except itself and one (e.g. 3) or having
no common factor except one (e.g. 3 and 7). Prime apocalypse or
revelation events are events that have nothing causal in common except
prophesy (e.g. increase in earthquakes and the establishment of the
Israeli state).
Violence is not a prime because,
like other subsets, it is associated with the need for Christ's return.
The biblical book of Genesis says during the days of Noah the earth
was filled with violence...God will destroy them along with
the earth (Genesis 6:13). Violence is defined as the freewill
choice to violate others and would not include phenomena such as tornadoes,
etc.
Some scholars with Darwinian
evolutionist's beliefs have erroneously suggested that the rate of
violence is decreasing. They cite such statistics as less human
sacrifice but fail to include abortion. They cite less slavery
but fail to include an oppressive government tax rate of over 50%.
They cite less rapes but do not consider the increase in child rape
or the increase of zanah (Hebrew, whorish) females that are not as susceptible
to rape due to their willingness to be sexually used. If the violence
of wars, abortion, and other crimes were categorized as murder, there
has been approximately 500 million deaths in the last century.
That number is more than the estimated world population around 200 years
ago and that number is about the same as today's combined population
of the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. H. G. Wells noted in his 1939
book, "The New World Order", that many resisters to a world of slavery
ran by self appointed elites will need to be killed.
Steven Pinker, a cognitive
psychologist at Harvard University, says that there is no universal
belief that there is no case where it is unacceptable to kill unarmed
women and children. Everyone accepts violence against the innocent
if they feel it justifies a greater end (self-defense, deterrence, collateral
damage). He cites the recent well known examples of the events
at Dresden, Hiroshima, Iraq, and Yugoslavia, etc. Israel accepts
collateral damage in the bombing of Lebanon in 2006 against Palestinian
terrorists. The Palestinians are inflicting damage as a means
to a better world. Pinker notes, as a psychologist, the psychology
of both Israelis and Palestinians are not quantitatively different.
That is not to say that their actions have moral symmetry. (The
preceding statements by Steven Pinker were excerpted from an email exchange
with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in December, 2008.)
The IDR's, Israeli Defense Force having
an average Hebrew I.Q. of 120, ethics regards the value of human life
as a supreme value based on a biblical history. The Palestinians,
having an average Arab I.Q. of 80, do not value human life due to their
values derived from the Qur'an. That contrast of beliefs points
to the reality of a NLF that it is good for innocent human life to be
valued, since the alternative is self-destructive and evil. Those
stark differences were exposed by the U. S. State Department's recent
"Roadmap
to Peace" between
the Israelis and the Palestinians. The goal of peace was to be
inductively followed by Israel's acceptance of the pre-1967 war land
boundaries and the Palestinians agreeing to stop paramilitary attacks
and terrorism. It is no surprise that the Israelis have complied
with the agreement but the Palestinians have not complied.
The unbiblical U. S. brokered
Roadmap to Peace agreement is reportedly based on U. S. President George
W. Bush and his advisors heretical Christian replacement theology.
Replacement theology or supercessionism is the incorrect interpretation
of the New Testament regarding God's chosen people, and the Christian
church. They generally believe that the new Divine covenant means
that today Christians have superseded or replaced Hebrews as God's
chosen people and that the Christian church replaces the geographic
nation of Israel. A basic understanding of the geographic specifics
of Jesus' second coming disproves this anti-Israel notion.
In a 1969 concert in the U.
S., the group called the Rolling Stones began to sing the satanic lyrics
of their song "Sympathy for the Devil." Their Hell's Angels
bodyguards and the audience became frenzied. The mayhem that ensued
left many injured and dead. The group had evoked evil behavior
from the spirit of their music. Like all art, their song reflected
the soul and theology of its creator. Johann Sebastian Bach's
(1685-1750) Passio Secundum Johannem
(St. John Passion) reflected the theology found in the text of the biblical
book of John chapters 18 and 19. Bach's work had a complex harmony,
praised God, and invited the spirit of peace.
Music theorists study how and
why music is perceived. Edward Klorman, violist and member of
the music theory department at The Juilliard School, says that scholars
are increasingly looking at the social and cultural contexts in which
musical works were created to provide a more complete understanding
of the piece. Klorman recommends the book entitled Musica Poetica
by Dietrich Bartel, a professor in the Department of Music at the Canadian
Mennonite Bible College, which discusses Bach's music vis-à-vis
the Lutheran religion and tradition of classical rhetoric. (This
statement by Edward Klorman was taken from an email exchange with Dallas
F. Bell Jr. during December, 2008.) Additionally, Michael
Marissen, a professor of music at Swarthmore College has written the
book "Bach's St. John Passion." (That book recommendation
was made by Leon Botstein, a renowned conductor and long-time president
of Bard College, in and email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in December,
2008.)
The Bible makes a clear distinction
between tones. To howl means a wailing tone in Hebrew and
to howl means to shriek in Greek. For
example, the biblical passage says "to howl, for the day of the Lord
is at hand, it shall come as a destruction from the almighty" (Isaiah
13:6; Jeremiah 4:8; Ezekiel 21:12; Joel 1:5). Howl means defeat,
whereas to shout means to triumph (Ezra 3:11-13; Job
38:7; Zechariah 9:9).
5. Conclusion
International relation's
and international law analysts can use both subgame perfect equilibrium
tools and the inductive event horizon from certain biblical prophesy
to understand prime and non-prime revelation (apocalypse) such as violence
and music trends.
(Appreciation for addressing
queries in an exchange of emails in December, 2008, is extended to Anthony
Arend, professor of Law, Government
and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and to Claire Kelly at
the Brooklyn Law School.)
----------------ALL
RIGHTS RESERVED © 2009 DALLAS F. BELL, JR.---------------
