Social Simulation
Sequencing:
Constructing
the Software Architecture for Systematic Political Science
by
Dallas F.
Bell, Jr.
Prolegomena
The anthropocentric domain
encompassed by the academic discipline of systematic political science
has substance, movement, and laws similar to those seen in the rest
of our particle universe. Like the cosmos, systematic political
science begins at its smallest points called singularities (theology,
T) [1]. They characterize the possible
human behaviors of analytic functions that make complex analysis achievable.
From the singularities, vectors (epistemology; rationality, R) project
accordingly. Strictly speaking, a vector is an element of a vector
space such as x is a vector space and all elements of x are vectors.
The vectors form the individual (B) and societal (W) parametrics.
A parametric can be understood as a set of equations that express a
set of qualities as explicit functions of independent variables or parameters.
The variables of the master equation, along with coordinate points,
can be changed to create another like outcome. For example, an
equation for engineering a wrench may involve increasing the variable
of length. The equation outcome would still produce a wrench but
only a larger wrench than the previous model. The same is true
for human behavior. Human needs remain the same but the options
of rationality fluctuate. Their varying coordinates are plotted
to reflect those realities [2]. The parametrics are contingent
on the corresponding magnitude (eschatology, E). The magnitude
potential is derived from the beginning singularity.
Computer simulations have recently
become useful to help visualize and predict relationships ranging from
those found in astronomy to those found in the microscopic world of
DNA [3]. Examples of simulation include
statistical, agent based, human cognitive and performance, and etc.
The common feature shared by all simulations is the attempt to generate
a sample of representation scenarios for a model where enumeration of
all possible states of the model is impossible. The validity or
trust of forthcoming simulation models requires verification and reproducibility
of their results.
Software architecture is the
structure of a system using the elements and relationships of software
and external properties. Architecture is a design but software
design is the next level, i.e. software design per se is the
implementation of the architecture design constraints. The purpose
of this paper is to provide the sequential steps of social simulation.
That process may also be seen as beginning the construction of the modules
or architectural input for systematic political science software design.
This is an interdisciplinary undertaking and esoteric computer architecture
terms will be avoided. An architecture expert tool may be used
along with the presented material to implement more precise modeling
tactics.
The following constraints,
connectors, and components of social simulation should be considered
sensitive. They are placed in sequence and are therefore sensitive
to change. The subsequent architecture scenario anticipates use
by all those interested in human and societal behavior.
It would be expected that minor alterations be made to statistical input
but it is not anticipated to have additions or subtractions of major
components.
Simulation Scenarios
Specific--the number
and type of agents are known by time and environment of action.
Nonspecific--the number
and/or type of agents nor the time or environment of action may be specifically
known.
The agents refer to the complex
systems of individual humans or institutions or nation-states.
They may be observed as coupled in a nonlinear manner becoming more
than the sum of their parts and exhibiting seemingly discoordinated
behaviors that are difficult at times to accurately predict. Systematic
political science indicates that they demonstrate the nonlinear attributes
of flexible qualitatively behavior at different times commonly associated
with bifurcation in dynamic systems [4]. Complex systems exchange energy
and matter with their environment and are thus thought of as open systems.
Simulation Scope
Microsimulation--simulation
of an individual(s) [5].
Intermediatesimulation--simulation
of a group(s) of individuals that comprise an institution(s).
Macrosimulation--simulation
of the institutions that make up a nation-state(s) [6].
Each of these categories may
be either specific or nonspecific.
Simulation Sources
Active input--input
that is generated, e.g. polls, language analysis, etc.
Passive input--input
that is naturally generated such as voting results, speech, etc.
Simulation Strategies
Person--a person(s)
acts and interacts with others to simulate a scenario.
Computer--a computer(s)
uses agents and criteria to simulate a scenario.
Combination--a person(s)
and a computer(s) are both used separately or in tandem to simulate
a scenario.
Each strategy can be
secondary to another primary strategy to validate results.
Simulation Software
Direct--software developed
specifically for the simulation.
Indirect--software
created for other uses but can be used for the simulation.
The software constitutes
the parts of the source and strategy for data computation.
Its purpose is to establish the compliance with or noncompliance with
Natural Laws of Freewill (NLF) [7]. That data is then plotted using
the Manifold Equation of Theological Asymmetry (META) formulae [8]. A manifold may be defined
as the coordinates of a geometric space of the numbers of a dynamic
system. A dynamic system has a fixed rule that describes what
future states follow. In the case of social simulation, the fixed
individual or societal need level follows to the next higher level unless
a stimulus causes recalibration. That behavior is evaluated by
the anchors of NLF. Being more compliant with NLF is considered
to be more lawful, whole, integral, or righteous. Being less compliant
with NLF is considered to be more unlawful, unwholesome, lacking integrity,
unrighteous or wicked.
Simple software like NetLogo [9] may be used as indirect software.
Cognitive software platforms such as ACT-R [10]
Roman" > and SOAR [11] may be useful. RePast [12] could be employed for agent based
simulation. StarLogo [13] is often used for models with a decentralized
system. Corpora tools involve Parts of Speech (POS) taggers, parsers,
treebanks [14], disambiguators, sense clusters,
etc. Unrelated software should be merged or modified whenever
possible to make them more useful, for example the network analysis
toolkit ORA [15].
Examples
Specific Microsimulation
--An individual; establish
a simulation strategy, make META plots, determine T and R tracks and
B level using all sources and tools, apply the appropriate environment/time
criteria, simulate the interaction with the NLF based stimulus to accomplish
the simulation purpose (e.g. referencing the suitability of the individual
for a security clearance), repeat or compare the results for verification.
Nonspecific Microsimulation
--Several individuals; establish
a simulation strategy, determine T and R tracks and B levels, apply
the appropriate environment/time criteria, simulate the interaction
with the NLF based stimulus to accomplish the simulation purpose (e.g.
define the risk parameters of a geographic region for real estate investment),
repeat or compare the results for verification.
Specific
Intermediatesimulation
--The owners and employees
of a company; establish a simulation strategy, make META plots, determine
T and R tracks and B level using all sources and tools, apply the appropriate
environment/time criteria, simulate the interaction with the NLF based
stimulus to accomplish the simulation purpose (e.g. determine the trustworthiness
of business contracts), repeat or compare the results for verification.
Nonspecific
Intermediatesimulation
--A company; establish a simulation
strategy, determine T and R tracks and B levels, apply the appropriate
environment/time criteria, simulate the interaction with the NLF based
stimulus to accomplish the simulation purpose (e.g. evaluate the decision
making process of a company toward a competitor), repeat or compare
the results for verification.
Specific Macrosimulation
--The internal behavior of
a nation-state; establish a simulation strategy, make META plots, determine
T and R tracks and B levels of the P1, P2, and P3 for the W level using
all sources and tools, apply the appropriate environment/time criteria,
simulate the interaction with the NLF based stimulus to accomplish the
simulation purpose (e.g. predict the direction
of the nation-state's constitutional law), repeat or compare the results
for verification.
Nonspecific Macrosimulation
--The external behavior of
a nation-state; establish a simulation strategy, determine T and R tracks
and B levels of the P1, P2, and P3 for the W level, apply the appropriate
environment/time criteria, simulate the interaction with the NLF based
stimulus to accomplish the simulation purpose (e.g. forecast a nation-state
likely to offensively use weapons of mass destruction in an unprovoked
manner), repeat or compare the results for verification.
As a final note it should
be emphasized that accurate simulation, not unlike history, can be expected
to be ignored by those that are not compliant with the reality of NLF.
However, what is true cannot always be undermined and whatever is false
will ultimately fail. The second generation structure of systematic
political science modules should have a more nonproprietary or open
systems architecture. Obviously, that change will give the product
more efficient results and make it easier to use. Improvement
in both those areas should lead to greater dissemination of anthropocentric
truth.
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RIGHTS RESERVED © 2006 DALLAS F. BELL, JR.--------------
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