Counterfactual Analysis and Λόγος: The Synoptic Parameters of Human Reasoning and Discernment from Cognitive Bonding in Complex Systems
by
Dallas F. Bell, Jr.
Linear
algebra is the math of vectors and matrices where a problem may be
solved in four stages. The following may be found from the diagram
below: the adjacency matrix A of the graph G, the matrix giving the
number of step walks in G, the generating function for walks from
point I to J, and the generating function for walks from points 1 to
3.
Fourier
analysis is systematic in covering all possibilities of reasoning for
axiomatic reality. When a reality crosses the threshold of being
axiomatic, such as the possibilities of an apple seed producing
something other than an apple tree, it need not be analyzed. But,
when a reality is unknown the same systematic process may be applied.
In
2017, Paul Lehner, test and evaluation chief at the Intelligence
Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), hosted a conference to
develop and empirically evaluate systematic approaches to
counterfactual forecasting. Counterfactual forecasts are defined as
statements about what would have happened if different circumstances
had occurred. This is an attempt to avoid analysis failure due to not
having considered a broader range of options—to know what we do not
know, short of the infinite standard of omniscience. The hope is that
over time lessons will be learned and prediction accuracy will
potentially increase.
Sandra
Wachter’s forthcoming paper (2018) at the Harvard Journal of Law &
Technology, Counterfactual
Explanations Without Opening the Blackbox,
addressed
the issue of AI algorithm perceived bias/ethics (see endnote 13). By
opening the “blackbox” of algorithm decision-making, it proposed
“three perspectives from people affected by automated
decision-making: (1) to inform and help the individual understand why
a particular decision was reached, (2) to provide grounds to contest
the decision if the outcome is undesired, and (3) to understand what
would need to change in order to receive a desired result in the
future, based on the current decision-making model.”
Wachter
et al. suggested “data controllers should offer a particular type
of explanation, unconditional counterfactual explanations, to support
those three aims. These counterfactual explanations describe the
smallest change to the world that can be made to obtain a desirable
outcome, or to arrive at the closest possible world. As multiple
variables or sets of variables can lead to one or more desirable
outcomes, multiple counterfactual explanations can be provided,
corresponding to different choices of nearby possible worlds for
which the counterfactual holds. Counterfactuals describe a dependency
on the external facts that lead to that decision without the need to
convey the internal state or logic of an algorithm. As a result,
counterfactuals serve as a minimal solution that bypasses the current
technical limitations of interpretability, while striking a balance
between transparency and the rights and freedoms of others (e.g.
privacy, trade secrets).”
Anthony
Cox, the newly appointed chair of the EPA’s Clean Air Scientific
Advisory Committee, said that “if data and causal analysis shows
that an intervention works, but we don’t have a plausible
explanation for why, I think it would still be sensible to
intervene. (Decision and policy makers only need to know
manipulative causal relationships — what effects do interventions
have — to make well informed choices, even though scientists will
still want to understand explanatory/mechanistic causation.
Sadly, today, policy makers are often only told about associational,
attributive, or counterfactual causal impacts, which is not what they
need to make good decisions, and all the varieties of causation are
routinely conflated in epidemiology papers and the press.)”1
The
more non-parametric and assumption free testing is the more
objectivity it can be considered to have. Counterfactual forecasting
seeks to remove human bias and ignorance so that variables crucial to
an analysis are inputted and that resulting prediction may be
accurate and useful. Of course, the epistemological variables crucial
to better forecasting include neurological dynamics of decision
making. For example, in 2014, James MacKillop used fMRI to study how
decisions are made regarding the consumption of alcohol. He found
brain activation was seen in the prefrontal and parietal cortices of
the cerebral cortex. Conflicting decisions caused activity in the
anterior insula. John Foxe et al. wrote a 2005 paper on Biasing
the Brain’s Attention Set.
Using high-density mapping of human event-related potentials, they
found that data supports extensive interactions between sensory,
parietal, and frontal regions during processing of cue information,
deployment of attention, and maintenance of the focus of attention in
anticipation of impending attentionally relevant input.
Neuroscience
contains the epistemological variables for the material brain
forecasting parameters, whereas data available and data chosen for
relevance by forecasters can be seen as including the epistemological
variables that have the most potential for improvement.
Studies
and historical evidence have shown that the higher the education in a
field, the greater error is made in counterfactual analysis of great
advances in that field. The expert demonstrates more confidence in
the prediction than a non-expert, yet the non-expert with less
confidence is often more accurate.2
Famous individual examples include, Faraday and the motor, Salk and
his vaccine, Damadian and the MRI. Each was told by educated experts
that their ideas were not possible. Hal Arkes, professor emeritus of
psychology at Ohio State University, is conducting research on
physician’s accuracy and confidence regarding their medical
discipline. He is also conducting data on meteorologists, bridge
players, and horse handicappers.3
Human
neurons cannot process or think about two things at once. If the
focus is on a learned belief that is untrue it cannot also focus on
the possibility of its opposite, which may be a truth. This is why
the more formally educated people become, especially Christian
theologians, the more tendency they seem to have to become
apostate/reprobate (to Christian biblical doctrine; II Peter
2:20-22). They voluntarily accept and reflect the liberal views of
doctrinal revolt by their professors, which is no longer objective
study of God’s (theology) immutable propositional calculus or
logic4
of doctrine5
that can lead man to a righteous relationship with God. Mind control
by outside influences must first have the soul’s permission (see
endnote 18).
A
2017 Pew Research Center poll found that 77% of college educated U.S.
democrats did not believe the reality of XX (female) and XY (male)
chromosomes that determines if a person was biologically female
(having XX chromosomes) or male (having XY chromosomes).6
Shown below is a survey of liberal (non-biblical or antichristian
views) held by education level.
There
is a common biblical saying that “they have eyes to see and cannot
see and have ears to hear but cannot hear.” In this case, it is
being stated that no matter what the reality of evidence the blinded
and deaf individual will not be accurate. They are not incorrect
because they have a lack of knowledge, inadequate problem-solving
ability, or voluntarily rejected relevant input. They cannot perceive
of the best outcome, x, for situation y.
Cognitive
bonding is the crucial development of learning and reasoning by
mentally immature intellects by absorbing/exchanging language and
modeling examples from mature authority figures, e.g. finite parents
and teachers, and the infinite true creator God of the Bible. Without
that bonding, learning and reasoning abilities will be predictively
lacking in experiential learning (Gr. anamnésis
for
reminiscence or remembrance: and Heb. zakar
to
mark or remember, Esther 9:28 remember Purim from puriym
or
a lot or broken piece and Ps. 143:5 remember the days of old) and
considered immature.7
For example, atheists’ learning and reasoning skills are often
exposed as immature by mature Christians in discussions of
philosophical and theological issues. The atheists’ flawed logic
systems usually devolve into incoherent ranting or denial of reality
when they are confronted with mature ideas. Much like finite children
raised without parental bonding guidance, they are often angry and
cognitively unskilled in balanced reasoning and are unloving as they
are accurately identified as fools. This necessary cognitive reality
and tikvah
of
bonding with the God of the Bible actually proves the existence of
the infinite God and disproves atheist and other unbiblical beliefs
(see endnote 13).
Examples
of cognitive bonding maturity with the biblical God is that they no
longer speak as a child (I Cor. 13:11), have mature reasoning (I Cor.
14:20), are teachers of God which are no longer unskilled in God’s
words (biblical scriptures, Heb. 5:12-14), and can overcome the evil
one (Satan, I John 2:14). Joshua mediated on God’s Scripture and
law to be prosperous and successful (Josh 1:8). King David taught
that meditation on God’s testimonies gave him more understanding
than his teachers (Ps. 119:9-16, 99, 129-130). He meditated on God’s
laws/commands, which made him wiser than his enemies (Ps. 119:97-98,
148). Job, David, and Solomon explained that the fear of God is the
beginning of knowledge (Job 28:28; Ps. 111:10; Prov. 1:7; Eccl.
12:13). To choose not to fear God is to be filled with one’s own
feeble devices (Prov. 1:20-33), as was noted by the poet Robert Frost
in a 1963 documentary interview. Paul told Timothy what to meditate
on for success (I Tim. 4:6-16).
Paul
said that discernment of good and evil8
comes from exercising the senses by reason based on biblical
scriptures (Heb. 5:14), which is cognitive bonding with the God of
the Bible. To discern (I Cor. 12:10, Heb. 5:14, Gr. diakrisis)
is to use judicial estimation and to spiritual discern (I Cor. 2:14,
Gr. anakrinō)
is to scrutinize. David (Ps. 119:18), Solomon (I Kings 3:9), and
Daniel (Dan. 7:16) each requested spiritual discernment and is needed
by all the redeemed of God (I John 4:1-6).
Scriptures
are divinely intended to be taught by parents to their children from
birth (Deut. 4:9, 6:7; Ps. 78:1-8). Understanding Scripture and God’s
will comes from His Spirit (John 6:44; Rom. 8:5-8). Jesus the Christ
is the intercessor between the infinite mind of God the Father and
the finite mind of man. The redeemed have the mind of Christ (I Cor.
2:16). Mind is the intellect (Gr. noús).
The infinite mind of the Holy Spirit makes intercession for the
redeemed in groanings which cannot be uttered (Rom. 8:26-27, Gr.
stenagmois
alaletois).
The redeemed nor the unredeemed can know the infinite mind of God
(Job 15:8; John 15:15) except through Jesus (Rom. 8:34; Heb. 7:25).
Physicists
like Stephen Hawking and Heinz Pagels are quoted as pointing out that
the 21st
century
is the age of complexity, and nations and people who master the new
sciences of complexity will become the economic, cultural, and
political superpowers of the 21st
century.9
In
human complex systems,10
equilibrium can be thought as being reached when perceived risk by
its (human) objects are proportional to their acknowledged dependence
on something or someone. In Homer’s famous Greek Odyssey,
Odysseus (L. Ulysses) had to choose between sailing close to the
monster, Scylla, or the whirlpool, Charybdis. He was dependent on the
ship for survival so he chose to avoid certain loss of the ship in
the whirlpool and to risk the loss of a few sailors from Scylla. The
well-known idiom “having to choose between two evils” is said to
have been derived from that Greek mythological story.11
The
eternal spiritual dimension can be thought of as a complex system.
The redeemed’s souls are in the spiritual realm. They are dependent
on God’s Spirit leadership to control their material body’s
neurons in this temporal physical realm so that they will voluntarily
risk whatever is necessary rather than be disobedient to God’s
will. The unredeemed’s souls are also in the spiritual realm and
are dependent on leadership from other than God’s Spirit so that
they will voluntarily risk whatever is necessary to not be obedient
to God’s will. For example, Abraham (redeemed) was willing to risk
everything to follow God’s leadership for his life (Gen. 12:1-4;
Heb. 11:8; James 2:23) and Jezebel (unredeemed; see endnote 8) was
willing to risk everything to not follow God’s leadership (I Kings
21:23; II Kings 9:22). To non-analysts, complexity can seem to
obscure focus on the obvious behavioral motivation of dependency.
The
complex system of the eternal spiritual dimension (closed system12)
determines boundaries for the complex system of the material neurons
of humans in the temporal dimension (open system). The complex system
of human neurons determines boundaries for the complex system of
individual behavior, which sets the boundaries for the complex system
of the institution of family that sets the boundaries for the complex
system of the institution of church that sets the boundaries for the
institution of business that sets the boundaries for the institution
of government. Each of those institutions of this temporal dimension
determine the boundaries for complex systems of societies or nation
states. They may be used to model such things as hypothetical space
settlements in this universe from irreducible complexities, where
intelligent design means all parts of a whole must be present to
function as created.13
The
Old Testament covenant law for man’s redemption had a shadow of the
good things to come (Heb. 10:1), which was the New Testament covenant
law for redemption in Jesus prophesied in the Old Testament. Jesus or
Yeshua the Christ is the historically prophesied fulfillment of
Messiah ben David (Messiah son of David), Malka Meshiha or Melekh
Mashiach (Aramaic and Heb. King Messiah respectively). Jesus’
necessary redemption authority (Matt. 28:18; Rom. 3:25) was from
infinite eternity (Gr. Theanthropos or L. Deus homo Jesus = infinite
power) without entropy (dS ≥ 0) and without equilibrium (dS = 0),
as is found with finite animal sacrificial blood, beginning with the
first animal blood sacrifice by God Himself (Gen. 3:21; Heb. 9:22)
for the sin of Adam and Eve in Eden, (finite blood = entropy
requiring future infinite power). The very image of animal sacrifice
could never make its practitioners permanently perfect14
(Heb. 10:1). The blood of the red heifer purified the unclean by the
sprinkling of its blood seven times (Num. 19:4). Jesus’ atoning
sacrifice was modeled by the heifer sacrifice (Heb. 9:13-14). Jesus’
blood was shed seven times after having a scarlet (red to reddish
blue) robe put on him (Matt. 27:28): (1) the crown of thorns cut his
head (Matt. 27:29), (2) His back was whipped (Matt. 27:26; Mark
15:15; Luke 18:33), (3-4) both hands were nailed to the cross, (5-6)
both feet were nailed to the cross, and (7) a spear was stuck in His
side postmortem (John 19:34).
The
Christian doctrine of the redemptive cross is foolishness to the
unredeemed (I Cor. 1:18) or natural man (I Cor. 2:14), as often
termed by Jonathan Edwards. Their minds are blinded (II Cor. 3:14),
but blind eyes can be opened (Is. 42:7). John Newton’s famous 1779
song “Amazing Grace! How Sweet the Sound” describes his
redemption in the stanza of how he was blind but now he sees.
Jesus’
redemption transforms all of creation (Is. 11:1-10): wolves and lambs
live together (v. 6), cows and bears eat together (v. 7), and
children and cobras play together (v. 8). His laws for all of
creation transcend the subsets of creation sets, such as the set of
humanity has the law for the institution for marriage to be between
one adult man and one adult woman for all subsets of humanity (i.e.
subsets of different cultures,15
subsets of different religions, etc.). Adam’s original sin also
transformed creation: from life to death (Gen. 2:17), from a
self-sufficient garden (Gen. 1:29-30, 2:8-9) to a land of thorns and
thistles (Gen. 3:17-18), and from vegetarian animals (Gen. 1:30) to
omnivores and carnivores.
Rejection
of the future biblical fact that creation is transformed by Jesus’
redemption, and therefore man’s eternal soul, is seen by old earth
beliefs. The past vegetarian aspects of animals before the sinful
fall of man and death occurred (Gen. 3; Rom. 5:12-21; I Cor.
15:21-22) must be rejected by intentionally misinterpreting other
Scripture (Job 38:39 etc.), which gives rise to other Christian
heresies.16
For example, the heresy of pain and suffering being part of God’s
original plan for mankind and animals is easily disputed (Rom.
8:18-22). Plants eaten by man and animals are not biblical life.
Biblical life is in the blood (Gen. 9:14; Lev. 17:11) and in breath
(Gen. 6:17, 7:15, 7:22; Acts 17:25). Plant life is not biblically
equivalent to animal life that breathes to oxygenate its blood. Old
earth logic must reject the redemption of Jesus, and by default
Jesus’ Divine nature as part of the triune God. Ultimately, old
earth believers not only are saying Moses’ account of the past is
false but Jesus’ account of the future is false as well.
Moses
wrote of discernment in Genesis (31:32, 38:25, Heb. nâkar
to
scrutinize). Discerning between good and evil (II Sam. 19:35) is
Hebrew yada’
(meaning
to know or see by observing. Solomon said every prudent (Heb. ‘ârûwm
for
cunning) man acts with knowledge (Prov. 13:16), but warned that a
prudent man conceals knowledge (Prov. 12:23, 13:16, 15:2). Knowledge
in Hebrew is da’ath
(from
the word yada’).
It should be discerned that not all analyst’s results are to be
revealed to everyone.
The
unredeemed may be blinded from knowledge timeline vectors of the
past, knowledge of the present, and knowledge of the future when the
redeemed can see. For example, the past was recorded by Moses’
writing the beginning history of the universe in Genesis and how God
rested on the seventh day (Heb. 4:4). The present was revealed to
David when he was told by God when to move in battle (II Sam. 23-25),
Elisha revealed the chariots of fire (II Kings 6:17), and Elisha knew
the secret words of the Syrian King (II Kings 6:12). The Old
Testament has the future foretold by God to Abraham regarding him
becoming the father of Israel, Joseph being told of the coming seven
year Egyptian famine, and Hezekiah being told he would live fifteen
more years (II Kings 20:4-11). The New Testament records Joseph was
told to go to Egypt and when to return (Matt. 2:13, 20), Peter was
told to go see Cornelius (Acts 10:19-20), and the book of Revelation
tells the future of the world as told to John. There are many
biblical examples of being blind: Israel’s forsaking God and
becoming punished as in the past (Judg. 2:11-15), people walked in
the vanity of their present minds (Eph. 4:17-18), and Noah’s
warning to the people of his era of the future impending flood (Gen.
6).
In
the prologue of John’s gospel, the word λόγος (Gr. logos)
refers to the Creator God of Genesis being Jesus with God’s Spirit
(Col.1:16-17; Ps. 104:30), called the Word.17
Logos is something said and a computation. The logos (word) of God is
sharper than any two-edged sword, piercing even to the dividing
asunder of soul and spirit, and so all motivations of creatures are
naked and exposed before God (Heb. 4:12-13).18
Logos refers to zaó
(Gr.
to live) and energés
(Gr.
active, root word for energy). God’s words (Heb. dabar)
do not come back void (Heb. rêyqâm)
(Is. 55:11; Heb. 4:12). Worlds were framed by the word (Gr. rhēma)
of God (Heb. 11:3). Jesus said that man does not live by bread alone
but by the rhēma
that
comes from the mouth of God (Matt. 4:4). Every word or commandment
(Heb. ‘imrah)
of God is pure (Ps. 12:6). The ‘imrah
of
the Lord is tried (Heb. tsâraph
to fuse, refine purify or purge away) (Ps. 18:30). Yet the kingdom of
God is not in logos but in power (Gr. dunamis
is
force or miraculous strength) (I Cor. 4:20).
The
redemptive promise of God to man has always been known within the
triune existence of God; the Father sends His Son Jesus to fulfill
the sacrifice and the Holy Spirit provides the continuing power of
salvation (Acts 1:8), anointing, knowledge (I John 2:20, 27), wisdom,
fear of God, counsel, and understanding (Is. 11:2-3).19
God’s promises are yes (II Cor. 1:20) and are sworn by His infinite
existence and power (Gen. 22:16; Heb. 6:13). At times, His promises
have conditions (II Chr. 7:14; Ps. 89:29-32), if x then y.20
Jesus said to say either yes or no (Matt. 5:27). Paul said to say
either yes or no (II Cor. 1:17-20), as did James (Jam. 5:12). Joshua
gave Israel the choice to either serve God or not (Josh. 24:15).
Finite man has binary options for choice. In analysis, the options
should be a series of all binary choices until a final binary choice
can be preferred.
Identifying
human choices of good and bad has been designated for artificial
intelligence (AI) into higher and lower social norms (e.g. DARPA
etc.) For example, to not talk in libraries and at funerals is a
lower social norm that is overridden by a higher social norm, such as
to not be deceitful or lie. Also the lower social norm to not talk in
a library can be overridden if the AI device needs immediate
maintenance. Of course, data does not determine human behavior, as
with AI. Humans have freewill to choose a different path, as with
redemption that produces justice, grace, mercy, etc.
Eleni
Panagou, cultural informatics and communication scientist at the
University of the Aegean in Greece, says there is a great deal of
volatility in acquiring new chipsets to meet hardware requirements
that often have protocols that may not be conducive to being
commercial or mass produced, thereby creating obstacles for short
term minded government officials responsible for the research
financing.21
Today, some efforts are to find and harness intra and inter cellular
signaling for computerized operations.
A
common computer has two basic choices for logic gates (0 or no and 1
or yes). A quantum style computer could have both at the same time.
In reality, both directions would be pursued until one is selected at
the end of the asymmetric series of nodes of inputted data for all
possibilities.22
The
Copenhagen quantum perception that electrons occupy two places at one
time is sometimes referred to as superposition. That belief is said
to be confirmed by the double-slit experiment. It may be accepted
that this is an event that requires unknown abilities by the
electrons. On the other hand, the idea could be treated as incorrect
and other possibilities considered, such as the idea that an electron
may be occupying two connected dimensions at one time and is
refracted as in different places from this dimension etc. Whatever
the reality actually is, pursuing more than the one perception is
paramount in attempting to avoid problems associated with
counterfactual analysis.
The
Copenhagen interpretation is wrapped up in probability distributions
of wavefunctions; i.e. is an electron, for example, most accurately
described as a particle, wave, or a probability distribution (an
artifact of abstract mathematics)? This question has been
fervently debated since the early 20th
century
but no definitive conclusion has been reached. The deterministic
interpretation of quantum mechanics was held by Albert Einstein and
is held by Vernon Cupps, nuclear physicist at the Institute for
Creation Research. Cupps’ believes the observable physical word is
deterministic. If he were to project a single electron on a
double slit, he believes it will go through one of the slits or be
divided into two waves, each entering one of the slits, with the
energy sum of the two divided waves equaling the energy of the
incident electron. He does not believe that matter can
simultaneously be in two different locations, i.e. matter is not
omnipresent. He describes electron superposition as the concept
that an electron exists partly in all its particular theoretically
possible configurations or states simultaneously until it is
measured. This is very different from it being in two different
places at the same time.23
The
cat in Schrödinger’s box24
is described as being possibly alive and dead until the box is
opened. It would be more helpful in determining if x then y if more
possibilities are considered to create decision spaces. When the box
is opened, preparation for the cat could have been based on it being
considered hyperactive (x = a), moderately active (x = b), hypoactive
(x = c) (due to sleep or a state of unconsciousness), and dead (x =
d). (Consider x, x′,
x″ [double
prime],25
x‴ [triple prime], x⁗ [quadruple
prime] etc.). If the future is looked at as trying to change the past
(see endnote 12), an acyclic graph of a space-time lattice may be
created as below.
Acyclic
is defined as not being able to travel in a loop. It is easy to
regard a set of nodes as the analog of a Cauchy surface, e.g., the
set {a, b, c,
d},
and it is obvious if arbitrary data are put on those nodes the data
will generate a unique solution in the future. By varying the values
of the factors the dynamics can be adjusted, and in an acyclic graph
the future evolution of the field will always be unique.
In
electrical engineering, metastability describes how an arbiter
circuit detects the comparator is in a metastable state between two
stable states and makes a choice between the binary options of 0 or
1. Of course, the arbiter would also technically have a metastable
state that needs an arbiter etc. Nevertheless, practical circuits can
decide in a few nanoseconds of unbounded time. It has been observed
that a discrete decision based on an input that has a continuous
range of values cannot be made within a bounded length of time.26
Jean Buridan (c. 1340) posed the situation that a hungry and thirsty
ass, which is between two equal distances of hay and a bucket of
water, would not be able to decide which way to go and die.
Aristotle’s On
the Heavens 295b
(c. 350 BC) made the same speculation for a man placed between food
and a drink.
Baruch
Spinoza (Ethics,
book 2, proposition 49, scholium) suggested that a person that sees
two options as actually equally compelling cannot be fully rational.
This recognizes the latent biases individual humans incorporate in
decision-making. This can be seen by the split second decision made
by a man to jump into a raging river to save a drowning child or not
jump into that raging river. The merits of self-sacrifice to save the
child, versus the self-preservation merits to not save the child,
have already been calibrated by conscious decision-making at a time
in the past. That bias is nurtured in the subconscious for necessary
immediate action. There would not be adequate time to save the child
if the conscious decision-making process was engaged. It is possible
that the cowardly decision to not save the child can be suppressed in
the subconscious by the conscious27
to avoid shame and other ramifications for what is considered
negative behavior by most societies.
The
traditional rabbinic approach to Talmudic and Torah study in Yeshivas
involves pairing students together for their vigorous exchange of
competing ideas called havruta28
(also
chavruta
or
chavrusa,
which
is Aramaic for friendship). The partnership (d’chavrusa
meaning
one study partner or both) causes each to arrive at a systematic
determination of truth. Groups may also be formed for the same
purpose (Heb. chavurah).29
Rabbi Asher Lopatin, member of The Council on Foreign Relations and
Rhodes Scholar President of Yeshivat Chovevei Torah Rabbinical
School, thinks this havruta-style could be useful for counterfactual
analysis to find all relevant human behavioral options for
predictions and outcomes of events.30
Solomon said iron sharpens iron (Prov. 27:17).
In
conclusion, the finite state of mankind has a knowledge vacuum. It is
then imperative that all possibilities (vector space) for analysis be
systematically pursued by determining the following: if the
theological belief is consistent or not with situation x, is the
epistemological evidence consistent with situation x or not, is the
individual behavioral history consistent with situation x or not, is
the societal group(s) behavior consistent with situation x or not,
and is the theological eschatology consistent with situation x or
not. This tupos31
may
provide the mathematical and algorithmic foundations for the
practical design and assessment of strategic mechanisms to find the
vector space for the possibly of rationally determining what we do
not know.32
The parameters of human reasoning and discernment exist in both the
neurological realm and the realm of changeable behavior. The
cognitive bonding relationship with the Logos determines the
potential for counterfactual analysis and their resultant predictive
accuracy.33
1
Cox’s
statement was made in an email to an academic forum in November,
2017, received by Dallas F. Bell Jr. Regarding expert judgment vs.
objective truth Cox continued with the email exchange, “I agree
that “expert judgment” vs. “objectivity” is a dichotomy, but
I do not yet see that it is false. Books such as Superforecasting
(https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718)
and Thinking,
Fast and Slow suggest
to me that being convincing and being correct are often very
different, and that arguments and intuitions can, and often are, one
without being the other. But I also think that current methods
of data science can help us find out what is true rather than just
what seems plausible. I felt the distinction between what is
true and what is plausible quite keenly some years ago when I was
working on animal antibiotics and emergence of superbugs. That
using animal antibiotics selects for resistant bacteria that are
then transmitted through the food chain and infect people with
strains that do not respond as well as other strains to antibiotic
treatment seemed to me so plausible that, on the face of it, it
almost had to be true. The only defect is that it did not seem
to fit the data for any drug/bug pair that I looked at carefully. I
eventually concluded that this compellingly plausible narrative is
probably just not accurate, or only holds so rarely that its effects
can't be detected for the drugs and bugs I looked at. But the story
still seems really good to me. Ultimately, it may be necessary to
choose whether to believe the story or to believe the data when they
don't appear to agree. And that conflict is not as rare as we
might want it to be.” Charles Haas, LD Betz Professor of
Environmental Engineering and Head - Dept. of Civil, Architectural &
Environmental Engineering at Drexel University, added, “I will
give an example of what Tony is pointing out from another line of my
scholarship. I have worked extensively on disinfection of water and
wastes. The germ theory of disease was not propounded until the late
19th century, and was really only totally accepted in the last
decade of the 19th century. Prior to this, a dominant mode of
thinking was the “malarial” theory (= “bad air”).
Disinfection itself dates back to biblical times, but in waters it
appears to have been used at least going back to the early 19th
century, and the doses used were clearly aimed at “deodorization”
though they would have been reasonably effective, as we now know,
against waterborne pathogens. Here is the earliest US reference
known to me:
https://collections.nlm.nih.gov/catalog/nlm:nlmuid-2541082R-bk
So
I agree - we can often do the right thing even if the full
mechanisms are not (properly) known.”
2
Charles
Bond and Bella DePaulo (2006), social psychologists, studied
lie-detecting powers. Their findings were as follows:
police
detectives and college students
-gave
true and false videotaped confessions to crimes they did or did not
commit
-although college students performed slightly better
than chance at distinguishing true from false confessions, police
detectives did not
-detectives were significantly more
confident about the accuracy of their judgments
-police
detectives were wrong more often than students, they were more
confident that they were right
-detectives showed a bias toward
judging false confessions as true
-tendency of police
detectives to infer guilt increased with job experience and
interrogation training
problems
with interrogators
-trained
to "read" verbal and nonverbal behavior as means of
determining whether suspect is lying may wrongly increase confidence
in lie-detection skills, but does not increase the ability to
differentiate truth from deception
behavioral
cues
-interrogators
are taught -crossing legs, shifting and fidgeting, grooming
gestures, avoiding eye contact which are flawed indicators of
deception
3
Arkes
made his research known in an email with an academic forum in
November, 2017, noted by Dallas F. Bell Jr.
4
Declarative
sentences use objective language in which propositions are the
sentence meanings, sometimes referred to as the sentential calculus.
For more information see the 1967 book, Mathematical
Logic,
by Stephen Kleene.
5
All
Divine doctrine has power and consequences. God’s thoughts are
profound and the brutish and foolish do not understand this (Ps.
92:5-6).
6
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/08/transgender-issues-divide-republicans-and-democrats/
7
Anamnésis
is used by Jesus to instruct the redeemed to observe the Lord’s
Supper for a remembrance of His redemptive work (Luke 22:19; I Cor.
11:24-25). The Christian church adopted this teaching in its
liturgy. The Swiss church reformer, Huldrich (Ulrich) Zwingli met
Luther and Melanchthon in the city of Marburg (1529) and pointed out
to the Catholic style theologians that Jesus said to do the Lord’s
Supper in remembrance of Him and so it could not actually be Him.
Zwingli’s sixty-seven thesis can be found at following website.
https://christianhistoryinstitute.org/study/module/zwinglis-sixty-seven-articles/
Plato
referred to anamnésis in Meno
and Phaedo
to epistemologically and
psychologically explain that humans possess knowledge from previous
reincarnations (see endnote 13 for why this belief cannot be
correct). The eternal soul remembers what the brain’s neurons
recorded on earth. Paul wrote (I Cor. 13:12), we will be known (in
heaven) as we are known (on earth). After death (Luke 16:22), the
rich man remembered Lazarus (Gr. from Heb. for God supplies help).
The rich man recognized Abraham and asked his Hebrew Father Abraham
for help as he remembered his brother’s unredeemed state (Luke
16:27-31). Abraham told the rich man to remember (Gr. mnaomai
for to bear in mind or
recollect) how he was rich on earth and Lazarus was poor (Luke
16:25). Peter, James, and John recognized Moses and Elijah at Jesus’
transfiguration (Matt. 17:1-3).
Cognitive
bonding is involuntary (the brain’s neurons record data from
sensory input and whether the sensory experience was pleasant or
painful). Cognitive bonding is also voluntary (the soul tells the
brain’s neurons to record data and how to record data as to
whether it is to be considered good or evil). Solomon wrote on
cognitive bonding with children: Prov. 22:6, 15; 23:13, 24; 29:15.
There are Divine consequences for bastards (Deut. 23:2). However,
Jephthah (meaning he will open) was the bastard son of a harlot
(Judg. 11:1-3) who judged Israel for six years (Judg. 12:1-7) and
was known for his faith (Heb. 11:32).
Note:
For behavioral statistics to have a proper context the variables of
innate problem solving abilities, inherited psychological disorders,
etc. need to be factored. The following website presents relevant
U.S. data on fatherless children.
https://thefatherlessgeneration.wordpress.com/statistics/
43%
of US children live without their father [US Department of Census]
71%
of pregnant teenagers lack a father. [U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services press release, Friday, March 26, 1999]
63%
of youth suicides are from fatherless homes (US Dept. Of
Health/Census) – 5 times the average.
90%
of all homeless and runaway children are from fatherless homes –
32 times the average.
85%
of all children who show behavior disorders come from fatherless
homes – 20 times the average. (Center for Disease Control)
90%
of adolescent repeat arsonists live with only their mother. [Wray
Herbert, “Dousing the Kindlers,” Psychology Today, January,
1985, p. 28]
80%
of rapists with anger problems come from fatherless homes –14
times the average. (Justice & Behavior, Vol 14, p. 403-26)
71%
of all high school dropouts come from fatherless homes – 9 times
the average. (National Principals Association Report)
70%
of youths in state-operated institutions come from fatherless homes
– 9 times the average. (U.S. Dept. of Justice, Sept. 1988)
85%
of all youths in prison come from fatherless homes – 20 times the
average. (Fulton Co. Georgia, Texas Dept. of Correction)
8
An
element of false or unrighteous discernment is a critical spirit.
This is characterized by having an argumentative disposition applied
toward issues and circumstances motived by seeking vain
confrontation and control while ignoring loving truth (Luke
11:38-54; Col. 2:8). The fruit of God’s Spirit is a loving (Gal.
5:22-26) pursuit of truth (Eph. 5:9). Righteous discernment in
analysis is characterized by rational reasoning to an issue or
circumstance motivated by humbly seeking loving truth as modeled by
King Solomon and the Apostle Paul.
The
logic gates of human neurons are hardwired by God the Creator for
their soul to distinguish between eternally good and evil behavior.
God’s laws are the algorithm for mankind’s good. Since
algorithms have ends, they are not infinite and so are not eternal.
The Scriptures contain God’s laws and is the reason Satan and his
allies attempt to destroy them. The homosexual Marten Woudstra
headed the NIV Old Testament committee and the NIV’s translation
committee (Episcopal) Virginia Mollenkott admitted in June, 1991,
(Witness,
pp. 20-21) that she was a homosexual. The parent publishing company
was Harper Collins who published “The Joy of Gay Sex” and “The
Satanic Bible.” The NIV changed Sodomite to shrine prostitute from
the KJV (Deut. 23:17; I Kings 15:12, 22:46, 23:7) and effeminate,
nor abusers of themselves was changed to male prostitutes, not
homosexual offenders (I Cor. 6:9).
A
commonly known algorithm is that of Lot. He begins with choosing to
live in the evil Sodom due to selfish pride and greed (Gen.
13:10-13). He has all his goods taken and returned by the righteous
Abraham, yet Lot chose to stay in evil Sodom because he was
corrupted and accepted their wickedness (Gen. 13:11-12; II Peter
2:7-8). Lot’s pride made him a leader of the wicked (Gen. 19:1).
He offered his daughters to the sodomites to be raped (Gen. 19:8).
Lot’s loss of righteous influence can be seen in his sons-in-law
mocking his moral hypocrisy (Gen. 19:14). He rebelled when he was
told to flee Sodom and wanted to go to another city like Sodom (Gen.
19:17-22). Lot’s loss of moral influence aided in his wife
rebelling and looking back toward Sodom and turning into salt (Gen.
19:26). Lot’s algorithm can be seen as ending with him having
incestuous relations with his two daughters (Gen. 19:30-38). The
demonic fall of Lot in Sodom can be witnessed today by people that
move to Washington D.C. called Potomac Fever. The demonic influenced
algorithm of Potomac Fever also starts with pride that leads to
greed and hypocrisy, and ends in sexual perversion. Potomac Fever is
widely known by the characterization of the abnormal increase in
sexual drive. Jezebel was known for her evil (II Kings 9:22). Her
name means “Where is the prince?” (prince is the Baal fertility
god), which was chanted by Baal followers. At her death at the hands
of the Jehu (II Kings 9:33; c. 843 B.C.), she dressed as a royal
queen (Phoenician princess) and Baal priestess (II Kings 9:30,
Jezebel is modeled as an evil prophetess in Rev. 2:20). Noah, Job,
Daniel, and Paul etc. are known for their positive behavioral
algorithms. The redeemed are not to be conformed to this world’s
algorithm (Gr. skematizo
or scheme) but are to
be transformed (Gr. metamorphóō
to alter form) by the renewing
of their mind so they can prove what is the good and acceptable will
of God’s algorithm (Rom. 12:2). It has been noted that there are
repeating human and societal behavioral algorithms. For example,
Ahab and Jezebel were societal leaders together for 22 years who
rejected God, sacrificed children, and supported sexual perversion
etc. William “Bill” and Hillary Clinton were also U.S. societal
leaders together for 22 years who rejected God, sacrificed children,
and supported sexual perversion etc. Jezebel was a societal leader
after Ahab for 14 years. Hillary Clinton also was a societal leader
after Bill Clinton for 14 years. Joram, also Jehoram, continued
Ahab’s evil societal policies for 12 years. Barak Obama also
continued Bill Clinton’s evil societal policies for 12 years. Jehu
killed Joram/Jehoram and ended his evil societal policies (II Kings
9:24). Donald Trump ended many of Obama’s evil societal policies,
e.g. one of his first executive orders after being elected president
was to end spreading abortion around the world etc. Joram/Jehoram
was in societal leadership when Ben Hadad was killed in his bedroom
(II Kings 8:7-15). Obama was in societal leadership when Osama Ben
Laden was killed in his bedroom. Jehu threw down Jezebel and ended
her evil societal leadership. Upon defeating Hillary Clinton in the
presidential election, Trump threw her down and ended her evil
societal leadership. Reported by numerous news outlets, 2 January,
2018, the daughter of William and Hillary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton
wished The Church of Satan a Happy New Year on her Twitter social
media account. The algorithm model for the redeemed during these
evil parallel times is Elijah (James 5:17-18). Decision-making
behavior is historically repeated: there is nothing new under the
sun (Eccl. 1:9-10).
9
See
Heinz
Pagels’ (1939-1988) The
Dreams of Reason: The Computer and the Rise of the Science of
Complexity (1988)
and Stephen Hawking’s interview with the San Jose Mercury News on
January 23, 2000.
10
For
thoughts on complexity and risk management, see articles and
lectures by Dan Geer, Chief Information Security Officer at In-Q-Tel
Inc.
11
See
M. Clarke’s (1900) book, Story
of Ulysses,
pp. 94-96.
12
The
infinite set of everything that has ever been and will ever be has
always been in the knowledge of God as immutable truth (James
1:17-18). That set is a closed system. The creator God of the first
cause of all effects created at His predetermined point in infinite
eternity this finite universe and finite man. Those entities exist
in a state of entropy within the closed system of eternity and can
be seen as an open system dependent on the closed system of eternity
for its very existence and its maintenance. Wheeler and Feynman are
considered the first to claim that the fact that (if) nature is
continuous could be used to argue that causal influences from later
events to earlier events, as are made possible by time travel, will
not lead to paradox without the need for any constraints (Wheeler,
J. and Feynman, R. 1949. “Classical electrodynamics in terms of
direct interparticle action,” Reviews
of Modern Physics,
21: 425-434.) Since the universe is not infinite and is a closed
system, event/time coupling would be by necessity linear immutable
truth in God’s intellect and not possibly subject to reversal,
transcendence or any alteration by finite humans.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/time-travel-phys/
Counterfactual
analysis of possible alternatives to actual historical realities
that are somewhat bounded events could be useful exercises for
developing and evaluating reasoning abilities and mapping them.
Today’s known flawed climate change models to predict future
events could be improved by creating models of past climate cycles.
Past climate data would be analyzed and inputted to the point that
they can adequately predict what is known to have actually occurred.
Having reached this potential high level of competence would also be
persuasive in gaining public trust for predictions and their
ultimate support. This is the process that has validated the truth
of biblical content. For example, if God created the seas in one
place and therefore the lands in one place (Gen. 1:9-10) there would
be evidence of a unity of land mass before the continental drift.
The earth’s land masses/continents fit like a puzzle. If there was
a biblical worldwide flood (Gen. 7:17-24) there would be sudden
death that covered animals for which numerous intact fossils would
be found and petrified trees which extend through many sediment
layers could be found. That is what is observed and recorded. If God
destroyed the wicked city of Sodom by fire (Gen. 19:24-25) this
would be found. That, too, was also discovered along with many other
biblical statements of fact having been proven.
13
Author
of The
Pensées
(Thoughts),
Blaise
Pascal is widely quoting as having said “People almost invariably
arrive at their beliefs not on the basis of proof but on the basis
of what they find attractive.” Tibetan Buddhists believe in bardo
(Sanskrit
antarabhāva
meaning
intermediate state). This is believed to be a transitional period
between death and being reincarnated, which varies in length
according to the good or bad standards of perfect conduct of a
person’s believed previous life. This denies the existence of
infinity. It wrongly means finite humans could be self-righteous
which requires infinite abilities and eliminates any need for
eternal redemption by grace (infinite justice means breaking one law
is to break all law for eternity and requires punishment of the
unforgiven for all of eternity) from the reality of the infinite
self-existent perfectly righteous and loving creator God of the
Bible. Jews reject Jesus as Messiah for the same reason atheists do;
because they do not like Him. Jesus read Isaiah 61:1-2 in the
synagogue in Nazareth which stated that the Messiah was prophesied
and He said He fulfilled that prophesy (Luke 4:16-21). John the
Baptist was acknowledged as the prophet prophesied in Mal. 4:5 to be
the forerunner of the Messiah (Matt. 3:3, 11-12: Luke 1:41, 66).
Jesus said that God’s redemption was for everyone (Luke 4:27) so
the Jews tried to murder Him (Luke 4:28-30) in spite of John the
Baptist’s work and Old Testament teachings (such as II Kings 5:14
account of the cleansing of the gentile, Naaman). This is also why
Jews today do not accept Jesus as Messiah even though He has
fulfilled all prophecies which is statistically impossible to have
been fabricated. This explains their pride that fuels their
anti-Christ hatred toward Christians that provide benevolent
assistance to them. Hebrews will fulfill their prophecy for the last
days, which requires the work of 144,000 members of the Israeli
tribes (Rev. 7:5-8) and the historic return to their geographic
state (this occurred in 1947-48: Is. 66:7-8; Jere. 16:14-15, 31:10;
Eze. 37:10-14, 21-22; Amos 9:14-15 etc.). For those events to occur,
there would need to be a genetic separation from non-Hebrews and a
Divine desire for comradery to recreate the Israeli nation. The
sense of their Divine role for family and state is righteous but
arrogance from false spiritual superiority toward non-Hebrews is
prideful and unrighteous. Jesus said His words are spirit and life
(John 6:63) and this means they must be accepted or rejected with
the eternal consequences that must follow. If you do not fear God
you cannot be wise (Prov. 1:7). Appropriate fear of God allows
people to reach their potential for receiving and exhibiting Divine
wisdom (Job 1:1).
Biblically,
people that are actually redeemed by God’s righteousness will
settle the next dimension with different laws of physics. There will
be no sun or moon since God is the light (Rev. 21:23) and can be no
night (Rev. 21:25). It would seem there is no circadian system as
used in this universe. The New Jerusalem will be a cube (Rev.
21:16). Cubes usually mean there is no external pressure to create a
ball shape. If there is no force how is sound made? How are sounds
heard? Do the redeemed have lungs or ears? Many more questions may
be asked about the new physics that cause proper reasoning in spite
of having little information. The unredeemed will be in a lake of
fire yet will never die. They, too, can reason about the physics
properties that they will face for eternity. Biosphere 2 was a
two-year project that began in 1991 with a human made ecosystem in
Arizona. Abigail Alling, a manager participant, said in a filmed
interview that the eight member human staff relied on Joseph
Campbell’s teaching on religious issues as myths (notorious for
his anti-Bible view), meaning there was little staff diversity for
moral beliefs with mature cognitive bonding with the God of the
Bible. They were caught in less-than-complete disclosures by
suppressing information on their technological failures and the
human interactions. This is a human complex system and could have
answered questions on counterfactual analysis, conflict resolution,
and possible use of havruta or chavurah techniques. Liars hate those
afflicted by their lies (Prov. 26:28).` On April 3 (1994) the New
York Times reported
that six of the eight participants were relieved of their duties by
their financial backer, Edward Bass, due to poor financial
practices. Alling and another manager, Mark Thillo, were later
charged with a felony for breaking and entering the three-acre
facility. Similar staff selections for space settlements would
likely result in exponentially worse outcomes (i.e. being under the
influence of the spirit of deception [Rev. 12:9], theft, rape,
murder etc.) due to their being much more complex systems with the
participants not having the option to immediately leave the
settlement and instantly being back on earth. Communications to
earth will even be delayed. (Note: A high-precision test of general
relativity by the Cassini space probe involved radio signals
being sent between the earth and the probe. There was a delay from
the warping of space and time due to the sun's mass. The
sun's mass caused the regular grid coordinate system to distort and
have curvature. In a Euclidean space, the separation between
two points is measured by the distance between the two points, which
is purely spatial, and is always positive. In spacetime, the
separation between two events is measured by the invariant
interval between the
two events. These take into account not only the spatial separation
between the events, but also their temporal separation. Spacetime
intervals may be classified into three distinct types, based on
whether the temporal separation or the spatial separation of the two
events is greater: time-like, light-like or space-like. Certain
types of world lines are called geodesics of the
spacetime – straight lines in the case of Minkowski space and
their closest equivalent in the curved spacetime of general
relativity. A curve is a geodesic if the tangent vector of
the curve at any point is equal to the parallel transport of
the tangent vector of the base point. In the case of
purely time-like paths, geodesics are (locally) the paths of
greatest separation (spacetime interval) as measured along the path
between two events, whereas in Euclidean space and Riemannian
manifolds, geodesics are paths of shortest distance between two
points. In general relativity, a geodesic generalizes
the notion of a "straight line" to curved spacetime.)
It is possible that the settlement effort could produce new
technology that would have general uses. But it will be at great
economic and human expense. Beyond establishing the societal
institutions of family, church, business, and government and their
subsets, the settlement will be subject to acceptable evolving
societal exchanges, such as a bartering/monetary device(s) for the
exchange of labor etc. Adapt to expected neurological changes found
in 2017 by Donna Roberts, M.D., titled “Effects of Spaceflight on
Astronaut Brain Structure as Indicated on MRI” featured in the 2
November issue of the New
England Journal of Medicine.
Negative interference at all phases of space settlement operations
by outsiders for varying reasons is to be predicted to develop
realistic contingency plans that will potentially promote success
(e.g. communications, resupply, cyberwar on technologies [no touch
war or sixth generation warfare in Russian war strategies, see Major
General Vladimir Slipchenko’s "A Russian Analysis of Warfare
Leading to the Sixth Generation," Field
Artillery, October
1993, pp 38-41, at
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rusvuiw.htm]).
In
October, 2017, the Muslim nation of Saudi Arabia was the first known
society to give a godless, soulless, humanoid robot, the female AI
bot named Sophia, the rights of citizenship. Ironically, the Islamic
nation does not give human females rights to walk alone, drive
vehicles, be educated etc., as it does male citizens. Former Google
and Uber technical executive, Anthony Levandowski has established a
non-profit religious corporation. Being sued in 2017 for stealing
company secrets for profit, he is the self-appointed messiah that
will create a god of artificial intelligence (AI) with his morality
that he boasts will be a billion times smarter than the smartest
human that uses robots to administer church duties. The church is
called “The Way of the Future” with the gospel of “The
Manuel.” In 2017 anti-Christian Da Vinci Code author,
Dan Brown said AI will create a collective consciousness that will
provide a new religion and replace God. Thus, infinite God’s
transcendent authority for perfect morality would be supplanted by a
flawed finite source for morality.
The
bias of algorithms for statistical learning in AI has come under
recent scrutiny. In 2017, Chris Ip (associated features editor at
Engadget)
quoted Sandra Wachter, a
lawyer and researcher in data ethics at London's Alan Turing
Institute and the University of Oxford. “Wachter said, Algorithms
force us to look into a mirror on society as it is. AI is only as
good as the training data fed into it. Programmers must be more
conscious of biases while composing algorithms. Like lawyers and
doctors, coders are increasingly taking on ethical responsibilities
except with little oversight. They're diagnosing people, they're
preparing treatment plans, they're deciding if somebody should go to
prison,” Ip quotes Wachter. “So the people developing those
systems should be guided by the same ethical standards that their
human counterparts have to be. This guidance involves dialogue
between technologists and ethicists,” explains Wachter. “For
instance, the question of what degree of accuracy is required for a
judge to rely on crime prediction is a moral question, not a
technological one. All algorithms work on correlations -- they find
patterns and calculate the probability of something happening,”
added Wachter. “If the system tells me this person is likely to
re-offend with a competence rate of 60 percent, is that enough to
keep them in prison, or is 70 percent or 80 percent enough? You
should find the social scientists, you should find the humanities
people who have been dealing with these complicated questions for
centuries." Of course, Wachter did not mention the transcendent
standards of righteous theologians as she listed the recommended
experts in people dealing with ethics. Without infinite moral
transcendence, ethical outcomes must be one group of finite humans
being victorious over other finite humans by exerting their superior
power and position. In an email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in
January, 2018, regarding a text that best standardizes/unifies the
ethical boundaries for all groups of finite human programmers of AI
algorithms, Wachter was so kind as to recommend the following 2017
paper she co-authored Counterfactual
Explanations Without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and
the GDPR (EU General
Data Protection Regulation)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3063289
There
can be human bias against AI bias formed by reality. An algorithm
converts real data into numbers to form statistics of probability so
decisions may be based on the reality of those odds. A person or a
group of people may not like the reality of the data. There are many
examples of education or crime proclivities where one demographic
does not like the reality of the outcome(s) and seeks to change the
real numbers or hide true data for a false outcome they prefer.
Being
a fool is a moral state and not an innate problem-solving issue.
Because a fool has said in his heart that there is no God (Ps.
14:1). Truth is not to be resisted without experiencing severe
consequences (II Tim. 3:8). If a person continues in Jesus’ word,
they will be His disciples, and will know the truth and the truth
will make them free (John 8:31-32). Usually attributed to Albert
Einstein, it has been said “Two things are infinite: the universe
and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”
The
space settlement agenda is largely formed on anti-biblical atheism.
Their negative motives include finding life from evolutionary
processes, becoming their own gods (Babel effect), transcending
human nature (bounded by God’s commandments), and creating a
utopia (heaven apart from God) etc. Neither of those goals is
possible to achieve. They persist in following those lies and will
attract likeminded followers. Atlantis (island of Atlas) is a
fictional island located beyond the “Pillars of Hercules”
mentioned in Plato's allegorical dialogues Timaeus and Critias,
written c. 360 B.C. about the hubris of societies. The untrue story
has led to scores of speculation by those that wrongly want to
believe the story to be true. At birth, humans are wired to
efficiently believe their parents and others until they experience
and recognize deceit. Cognitive bonding teaches children thinking
and learning/reasoning skills through the exchange of language and
modeling examples of adults. (See Jean Piaget’s theory of
cognitive development in
four stages: the sensorimotor, preoperational, concrete operational,
and formal operational period. They are consider to be a continuous
series, described as décalage
or progressive.) At some point,
children will also practice deceit for their own selfish purposes.
Only the words of God, recorded in Scripture, are infallible for
cognitive bonding. Therein lies the hope or tikvah
(Heb. for hope but means a rope
to bind) to hold on to Yahweh in good or evil times (Job 4:6; Ps.
71:5).
14
The
practitioners of OT redemptive animal sacrifice were under the law
and did have temporary (finite) forgiveness (Lev. 4:20, 26, 31, 35),
but the final permanent (infinite eternal) cleansing was not
possible. The consciousness of guilt was not removed. Only infinite
Christ could and can provide that eternal perfection.
15
In
1993, Trompenaars and Hampden-Turner published their “Seven
Dimensions of Culture” model to help explain national cultural
differences. Their surveys revealed the following.
Americans
consider that the goal of a negotiation is a signed contract (close
a deal).
Japanese/Chinese consider the goal is the creation of
a relationship between the two sides (open a relationship).
The
Egyptians interpreted Israeli directness as aggressiveness and,
therefore, an insult.
The Israelis viewed Egyptian indirectness
with impatience and suspected them of insincerity, of not saying
what they meant.
Calling
by first name at first meeting:
Japan/Egypt = act of disrespect
(negative)
Australia/ USA = act of friendship (positive)
16
If
death occurred before man’s fall in Eden, Jesus’ death later on
would not have redemptive significance but would just be part of a
natural process for all beings. The Creator would not be the loving
good merciful God in the Bible (Ps. 69:16). No prophecy of Scripture
is of any private interpretation (II Peter 1:20).
Biblical exegesis in rabbinic study of Scripture has four
approaches: Peshat (פְּשָׁט),
"surface" ("straight") or the literal (direct)
meaning, Remez (רֶמֶז),
"hints" or the deep (allegoric: hidden or symbolic)
meaning beyond just the literal sense,
Derash
(דְּרַשׁ)
from Hebrew darash
"inquire"
("seek"), the comparative (midrashic) meaning, as given
through similar occurrences, and Sod (סוֹד)
(pronounced with a long O as in 'soda'), "secret"
("mystery") or the esoteric/mystical meaning, as given
through inspiration or revelation (known by the acronym of PaRDeS).
They can be applied to the four gospels of Jesus: Matt., Jesus as
the prophesied Messiah, Mark, the gospel of Jesus, Luke, Jesus as
Savior, and John, the theology of Jesus’ work. In the last days,
people with the theological vegan philosophy will attempt to act
with Jesus’ redemptive power over creation’s sin nature and
command people to not eat any meat (I Tim. 4:1-4; also see Ps.
107:17-18; Acts 10:12-15; Rom. 14:20). This is a hypocritical
position in that vegans do not require other than humans to never
eat animal related food products. Hypocrisy (L. hypocrisis, Gr.
hypokrisis) is to act on a stage. A hypocrite is someone who affects
a logic system that is different than their real logic system. That
inaccuracy is either a result of intentional evil lying (Mark 12:15;
I Tim. 4:2) or is not intentional due to insanity. Insanity is a
legal term for a mental lack of correct logic reasoning. Psychosis,
a psychiatric term, is a mental disorganization of logical reasoning
(Dan. 4:32-34). Logic is a principle of reasoning by intellects to
prevent errors in coherence or identify errors in coherence. The
incoherence of hypocrisy is easily spotted by observers. The
hypocritical unredeemed are noticeably quick to point out the
hypocrisy in other people, especially the redeemed who are ashamed,
but try to reason away their hypocrisy as they demonstrate little
shame when their hypocrisy is made known. Hypocrites are largely
deceiving themselves that their incoherence is not easily
recognized, which can lead to stress and its issues from cognitive
dissonance. A hypocrite(ical) (Heb. chânêph,
soiled meaning to soil or pollute [with sin]) destroys their
neighbor with their mouth (Prov. 11:9). Wisdom is from above…and
without hypocrisy/sincerity (James 3:17).
17
The
overall human algorithm for temporal life is in the created
biological DNA code from life’s beginning to its end. The reality
of the Logos is seen in the order of the universe. Humans can choose
to accept it or reject it and choose the alternative of chaos by
default and the penalty of death.
18
It
is common for souls to teach the brain’s neurons techniques for
more efficient recording of data. For example, neuroscience students
studying for a test may vision the sections of a brain and stem as
an ice cream cone with layers of different flavors of ice cream.
Healthy neurons express the soul’s desire to either love or hate.
Neurons can not do two things at one time. David discussed sorrow in
his heart and council in his soul (Ps. 13:2). Neurons can not
process both joy and despair at the same time. David said hope in
God and praise of God is the answer to despair (Ps. 42:6, 11; 43:5).
Paul said the redeemed are to pray and be thankful to God in
everything, being careful for nothing (Phil. 4:6). The flesh fights
the soul (Gal. 5:17). The flesh seeks tools, i.e. mind altering
drugs etc., to control the rational mind. The redeemed’s soul
controls the brain mechanism until pain or defects override soul
control. The flesh control is selfish, hateful, and unloving. The
redeemed’s soul uses its neurons to ally with other redeemed souls
and the flesh uses its neurons to ally with other unredeemed souls,
yet they recognize they are lacking the love etc. the redeemed have.
The soul could not be bifurcated into control of multiple
personalities without knowledge of each other. This explains why
“Manchurian candidate” experiments failed to involuntary control
the soul’s moral control of the mind. Forcing experiences (i.e.
education, military etc.) on large groups of people cannot produce
an analytical track for inductive reasoning of inputted neurons for
behavioral profiling. The data can never be complete enough and
people can obscure experiences. It is possible that a demon can
override the unredeemed soul’s control of the neurons as it is
possible for the Holy Spirit to override the redeemed soul’s
control of the neurons. The sinless Jesus (II Cor. 5:21; Is. 53:6,
9) said His spirit was willing to do His Divine purpose, but His
flesh was weak (Matt. 26:41; Mark 14:38).
19
God’s
Holy Spirit is on Scripture. They are Vox
Dei (L.
voice of God). God cannot lie and neither can the Scriptures. This
is why all people have the right and need to read Scriptures. They
are a direct communication with God and prevents intentional or
unintentional hearsay error by mediators. The Holy Spirit gives the
gift of holy living or godliness—piety (Rom. 8:14-16). The
benefits are for a safeguard against temptation (Gen. 39:7-9), are
for the present and the future (I Tim. 4:8), and are for eternity in
heaven (Rev. 14:13). Renée de France, Duchess of Ferrara, was known
for her hospitality of church reformers in danger and her piety. Her
daughters were kidnapped by Catholic Church leadership until she
recanted her protestant theology but she refused to support those
Catholic oppressors and their heretical theology. Considered one of
the greatest orators of America’s Second Great Awakening by the
U.S. Declaration of Independence father and signer, Benjamin Rush,
was Harry Hosier. Known for his evangelical teaching of pious
living, Hosier was the protégé of Francis Asbury. The Great
Awakening movement in the U.S. was anti-institutional. There are
numerous biblical examples of righteous anti-institutionalism, such
as with Jeremiah, Paul and even Jesus. In time, all righteous
movements will become institutionalized and need to be overtaken by
a new movement that resists the evolving doctrinal heresy of the
institutions’ leadership. The general taxonomy of (Christian)
theology is Catholic, Evangelical, and Reformed. They each share
unifying common doctrines, such as the beliefs of Martin Luther and
the Lutheran Church, but also exhibit distinct doctrines, such as
the solo
scriptura
doctrine
of evangelicals and reformed is not shared by Catholics.
20
Because
God is infinite His promises for the future are prophecy and law,
such as if x then y. They are an immutable substance of the future
to come, as the past is truth they are truth (see endnote 12).
21
Panagou
expressed her view to Dallas F. Bell Jr. in an email exchange in
September, 2017.
22
Thanks
is extended to Francis Edward Su, Benediktsson-Karwa Professor of
Mathematics at Harvey Mudd College, for his assistance with this
subject during a December, 2017, email exchange with Dallas F. Bell
Jr.
23
Cupps’
remarks were from an email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. in
November, 2017. He reemphasized the principle of something not being
able to be both “X”
and
“not X”
at
the same time. A person cannot serve both God and mammon (Aramaic
for property or what is stored or what one puts one trust in; Matt.
6:24). A person cannot be a friend of this world God created (e.g.
an adulterer etc.) and a friend of God at the same time (James 4:4).
If that person loves the world God created, that person will not
also have the love of Father God in them (I John 2:15). God’s
creation (object of worship X
by
person Y)
should not be worshipped instead of worshipping God the creator
(object of worship X
by
person Y).
Something can be in place “X”
and
“Y”
and
“Z”
at
the same time. For example, a person can be in Paris (city X)
and France (nation Y)
and Europe (continent Z)
at the same time, but cannot be in Paris (city X)
and London (city X)
at the same time. Obviously, city X
is
a category which cannot have exact object equivalence` with a
different city X
object.
24The
widely known Schrödinger's cat discussion involves a cat, a flask
of poison, and a radioactive source being placed in a sealed box. If
an internal monitor detects radioactivity (i.e., a single atom
decaying), the flask is expected to shatter which releases the
poison and likely kills the cat.
25
Double
prime is used to distinguish a third quality from two other related
qualities, x and x′.
They are used to denote transformed coordinates, derivatives etc.
Derivatives of a function represent (infinitesimal) change in the
function with one of its variables.
26
See
the December 1984 paper, Buridan’s
Principle,
by
computer scientist Leslie Lamport.
27
John
Bargh’s book, Before
You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do, acknowledges
the role of the subconscious. However, he attributes this ability to
evolution which could not statistically have occurred in that all
possible alternatives did not kill everyone until that aspect of
humanity survived. His bias is to ignore the reality of creator God
that neurologically wired humans. Bargh is professor at Yale
University’s School of Management.
28
One-on-one
learning between leaders is encouraged by Paul (Gal. 6:6).
Jon
Levisohn is an associate professor in Near Eastern and Judaic
Studies and Jack, Joseph and Morton Mandel Chair in Jewish
Educational Thought at Brandeis University. He recommends the
following
http://www.brandeis.edu/mandel/projects/beitmidrashresearch/index.html
Havruta
can take many forms. A Christian church studies the Bible each week
with the following two-hour format.
Personal
check-in (20 min.)
Silence
and prayer (5 min.)
Framing
text (10 min.)
Reading
text aloud (10 min.)
Havruta
dialogues (20 min.) -- Orit Kent recommends three pairs of core
practices in which havruta learners engage: (1) listening and
articulating; (2) wondering and focusing; and (3) supporting and
challenging.
Reporting
back (15 min.)
Group
discussion (20 min.)
Silent
reflection (5 min.)
Take-aways
(10 min.)
Closing
prayer (5 min.)
29
A
biblical
example of
chavurah is Job’s discussion with his friends (Job 2:11 to chapter
37, 42:7, 10).
30
Lopatin
expressed his view to Dallas F. Bell Jr. in an email exchange in
November, 2017. Alexander Rofé’s
November, 2017, email exchange with Dallas F. Bell Jr. regarding
this subject is appreciated. He is an emeritus professor in the
Bible department at Hebrew University.
For
more information on the havruta-style see
https://www.brandeis.edu/mandel/pdfs/TheoryofHavrutaLearning.pdf
Dallas
F. Bell Jr. acknowledges appreciation to the office of Rabbi Daniel
Lapin for the email exchange in December, 2017, regarding this
subject.
31
Tupos
is Greek for model or pattern (Tit. 2:7; Heb. 8:5). All algorithms
are models for repeating algorithms of decision-making. Human
modeling may be seen in the 2017 paper by Yair Hartman and Ariel
Yadin titled Furstenberg
Entropy of Intersectional Invariant Random Subgroups.
32
Luke
23:34; Acts 7:60; Jude 10.
33Scott
Armstrong and Kesten Green are working on a paper for forecasting.
An abbreviated version of the paper’s abstract reads as
follows...
Problem: Few practitioners or academics use findings
from nearly a century of experimental research that would allow them
to substantially reduce forecast errors. In order to improve
forecasting practice, this paper develops evidence-based guidance in
a form that is easy for forecasters and decision-makers to access,
understand, and use: checklists.
Findings: Seventeen simple
forecasting methods can between them be used to provide accurate
forecasts for diverse problems. Knowledge on forecasting is
summarized in the form of five checklists with guidance on the
selection of the most suitable methods for the problem, and their
implementation.
Usefulness: Forecasters can use the checklists
as tools to reduce forecast errors—often by more than
one-half—compared to those of forecasts from commonly used
methods. Scientists can use the checklists to devise valid tests of
the predictive validity of their hypotheses. Finally, clients and
other interested parties can use the checklists to determine whether
forecasts were derived using evidence-based procedures and can,
therefore, be trusted.
The working paper is available from
ResearchGate,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318392870_Forecasting_Methods_and_Principles_Evidence-Based_Checklists
